Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Update on Q4 Pivot View for Stocks and Gold

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Reference a post from August 11: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

Stock Market Status

In the above-linked article we noted several legs that could be kicked out from under the S&P 500’s table in Q4 2017. The stock market blew right through one of them, which was a bearish (on average) seasonal trend for the 2nd half of September. No one indicator is a be all, end all. In sum, they define probabilities. But price is the ultimate arbiter and as of today, price says ‘still bullish’ (says Captain Obvious).

Another leg was the 30 month cycle that has caught 5 of 7 important tops or bottoms (4 tops, 1 bottom) since 2000. As noted when it was first presented, this monthly chart takes into account months of slush in and around the 30 month mark, so it is far from an exact timer. The S&P 500 remains in the window with the September bar now in play. (more…)

US, Global, Commodity & Precious Metals Big Picture Views

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Time once again for a review of the big picture, because… perspective. For example, in my mind I feel that training has been done to not expect a real whopper of an inflation trade. That was from the conditioning of the global deflationary force, post 2007. Yet the technicals for industrial metals are bullish for more upside, as you’ll see below.

Anyway, here are big picture monthly charts with limited word interference from me (and hence, not comprehensive analysis). It’s just for your own individual reflection if you’re even into this stuff like I am. (more…)

As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a TWIST

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Preface from Tim which has nothing to do with the post below: if you missed my mentioning it earlier, SlopeCharts now has text notes and searching (try a search of “Top“, and you see lots of charts from me………obviously). I hope you check it out!

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With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble…

In early 2013 we noted a progression that would go on to birth the current economic expansion and stock market boom (of course, I didn’t come close to envisioning the extent of the boom that followed). I’ve belabored it often since, but here’s the short version of the progression yet again…

Fiscal Cliff drama resolves into market relief after Q4 2012 and this occurs right around the time we noted that Semiconductor Fab equipment bookings were ramping up → which projected a ramp in the cyclical Semiconductor industry → which would lead general manufacturing → which projected broader economic firming → which projected improving employment → and with ISM currently booming and the Semi cycle in full swing, voila, we are still on that continuum. (more…)

Gold in Three Time Frames

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Please don’t listen to the “gold smack down” cry babies, always making rationalizations or excuses, I beg of you. Don’t listen to the “gold is nothing but a stupid rock they dig out of the ground” neo hipster wise guys either. Gold just is, and the gold bug “community” makes way more of it than that, taking it to the realm of the mystical or worse, religious (as in a war of good vs. evil).

The wise guys wish gold did not exist (but it is) because it gets in the way of so many paper and digital advances and innovations (or shenanigans), not to mention boundless egghead theories about a new era of finance. Get this wise guys; we are still, each of us, bags of bones, blood and guts in some cases with high functioning brains that tend to forget that fact. We are emotional beings; humans. Gold has provided stability to emotions in the financial realm for centuries.

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US Dollar and the Bond Continuum ©

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The US currency is up this morning and surprise surprise, gold, among other things is down (gold bugs should not be in worry mode, they should be in general preparation mode… and I don’t mean canned goods and Uni bomber shacks).

Meanwhile, the USD would not be disruptive for US stocks unless/until it gets impulsive and attends a flight to the risk ‘off’ side of the boat. Short of that, a rise in the dollar puts stocks on notice, but doesn’t croak them in real time (as evidenced by the 2014 up phase). Meanwhile, logical rotation is the theme.

If USD goes on to do what I think it will do, the declining black line AKA the 200 day moving average, is the target. So far, so good as Unc is making good progress at turning the MA 50 into support. I am very long pro-USD vehicles. (more…)