Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

“Great Rotation” Ahead: Inflationary or Deflationary?

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Update: This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my thoughts drifted to the components of the article (yeah, that’s pretty sad, I know), and with further consideration I am leaning toward neutral or even a bit into the deflationary camp. The reasons will be the stuff of another article.

Think back to the blaring headlines about the Great Promotion  Rotation in the financial media in 2013. Perhaps the media circus started in January of that year when The Economist asked the question of whether the rise in bond yields signaled a “flight” out bonds and into equities. It was probably an earnest and right minded question asked by The Economist, but you know our friends in the greater financial media; get a good story and flog the hell out of it to harvest eyeballs. Reality be damned, man, it’s the eyeballs that matter!

As the mini hysteria grew that year we called it a “Great Promotion” (by the financial media) in expectation that the Continuum’s limiter (the red monthly EMA 100 on the 30 year bond yield chart below) would hold once again, just as it had during Bill Gross’s inflation hysterics that signaled a top in inflationary angst in early 2011. By the end of 2013, our ears were ringing with the media buzz and drone about the “Great Rotation”.

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Baltic Dry Index… Freak Show Here

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Here we take a look at the BDI once again and marvel at its complex Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern with compound shoulders. Of course, that is a TA’s way of baffling ’em with technical sounding bullshit when what he really means is ‘look at that freakish thing; I don’t really know what it is but man it looks bullish!’

BDI is a shipping calculation, not an index; and hence, who really knows if it even translates well to a stock chart? But in my highly technical opinion, man, this freak looks bullish (and positive for the global economy). (more…)

Update on Q4 Pivot View for Stocks and Gold

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Reference a post from August 11: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

Stock Market Status

In the above-linked article we noted several legs that could be kicked out from under the S&P 500’s table in Q4 2017. The stock market blew right through one of them, which was a bearish (on average) seasonal trend for the 2nd half of September. No one indicator is a be all, end all. In sum, they define probabilities. But price is the ultimate arbiter and as of today, price says ‘still bullish’ (says Captain Obvious).

Another leg was the 30 month cycle that has caught 5 of 7 important tops or bottoms (4 tops, 1 bottom) since 2000. As noted when it was first presented, this monthly chart takes into account months of slush in and around the 30 month mark, so it is far from an exact timer. The S&P 500 remains in the window with the September bar now in play. (more…)

US, Global, Commodity & Precious Metals Big Picture Views

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Time once again for a review of the big picture, because… perspective. For example, in my mind I feel that training has been done to not expect a real whopper of an inflation trade. That was from the conditioning of the global deflationary force, post 2007. Yet the technicals for industrial metals are bullish for more upside, as you’ll see below.

Anyway, here are big picture monthly charts with limited word interference from me (and hence, not comprehensive analysis). It’s just for your own individual reflection if you’re even into this stuff like I am. (more…)

As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a TWIST

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Preface from Tim which has nothing to do with the post below: if you missed my mentioning it earlier, SlopeCharts now has text notes and searching (try a search of “Top“, and you see lots of charts from me………obviously). I hope you check it out!

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With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble…

In early 2013 we noted a progression that would go on to birth the current economic expansion and stock market boom (of course, I didn’t come close to envisioning the extent of the boom that followed). I’ve belabored it often since, but here’s the short version of the progression yet again…

Fiscal Cliff drama resolves into market relief after Q4 2012 and this occurs right around the time we noted that Semiconductor Fab equipment bookings were ramping up → which projected a ramp in the cyclical Semiconductor industry → which would lead general manufacturing → which projected broader economic firming → which projected improving employment → and with ISM currently booming and the Semi cycle in full swing, voila, we are still on that continuum. (more…)