Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

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Prologue: This is a bearish article written by someone who covered his short (bearish) positions today (except for the euro) and has only long positions now, in precious metals and stocks, along with a heaping helping of cash. In other words, per yesterday’s snapshot, the market had dropped to levels that could see a bounce, especially since the spark to this week’s reaction was not legitimate as a substantial market input. This article is not concerned with short-term ups and downs; it is concerned with what comes in September or in Q4, after da boyz is back from da Hampins and settled in.

The war of words between the TiC (Tweeter-in-Chief) and the LiC (Lunatic-in-Chief) has little to do with the financial market’s intermediate-term fate. In the very short-term? Sure, man, machine, casino patron and Mom & Pop will fly in and out of stocks as the wind (and sentiment backdrop) blows. But before this standoff of the belligerent, the markets had set a course for changes come September or Q4 2017. (more…)

Make Way for Uncle Buck

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It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.

USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.

usd

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Law 101 Meets Psych 101

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Lawyers and Psychologists

Steve Saville has a post out called Don’t Think Like a Lawyer. In the post he notes the following…

“The job of a judge or juror is to impartially weigh the evidence and arguments put forward by both sides in an effort to determine which side has the stronger case. The job of a lawyer is to argue for one side, regardless of whether that side happens to be right or wrong. As a speculator it is important to think like a judge or a juror, not a lawyer.”

While I often talk about the same concept in psychological terms (subordinate ego, bias and automatic thinking regimens in service to one simple goal; being on the right side of markets) the lawyer analogy works as well. Lawyers often argue cases that are lost causes; that is their job. The market and its millions of inputs from man, machine and casino patron alike is the judge and jury because it renders the verdict to any given stance.

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SPX Cycles, Fed Funds and Gold

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This “amateur cyclist’s” chart (I am anything but a cycles analyst) of the S&P 500 shows that the 12 month marker (C12) meant exactly nothing as the market remained firmly on trend, after brief pokes down in April and May. We noted that C12 was a lesser indicator than the 30 month cycle, which has coincided with some pretty significant changes (+/- a few months). That cycle (C30) is coming due at the end of the summer. Will it mean anything? Well, this market eats top callers for breakfast, lunch, dinner and midnight snacks. But it is worth knowing about to a lucid and well-armed market participant.

spx cycles

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Bonds and Related Indicators

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Excerpted from the June 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which also included comprehensive analysis of US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and stock charts galore (with the Market Internals segment, in particular, having evolved into what I find to be a must-have guide).

TLT is now a buck from its target of 129. Tell me, where is all that mania about rising interest rates and the likes of the “R.I.P. Bond Bull Market” headlines (Bloomberg called the bottom almost to the day with that Louise Yamada hype). Now a mature bounce labors on. 129 does not need to stop the move, but it’s a long-standing marker, so… (more…)