Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Erection

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featured.trumpThis is the opening segment to this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 421, a 48 page work-through of the immediate post-Trump landscape.  While we had fun with the Trump hysteria throughout an ultimately serious analytical report, I look forward to marinating in the post-hysteria atmosphere and coming up with well defined market directions, whether they be born of new macro fundamentals to be, or contrary sentiment driven possibilities, which are also in play…

People who have read me for years know that all sorts of buzz phrases (Inflation onDemand, Armageddon ’08, etc.) and some off color writing can find their way into my work, especially when writing publicly. I do not think highly of the Federal Reserve system, the average politician or even many US Presidents through my lifetime. Formally, I do respect the office and ultimately by extension, even a President I may not happen to like. It’s been that way much more often than not, after all.

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US Market Update: Trump Towers

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There are more Trump Towers being erected by certain indexes (ref. Uncle Buck’s pants tent noted yesterday in an HUI update).  As an aside, say what you will about the man, but the name and the persona are a natural for we financial writers and others not tasked to be sensitive about politics or politicians.  I mean, how much fun could one make of Obama, a person who comes across as dignified and idealist?  Bush was a little better, but even he was no Trump.  The Clintons?  Getting warmer.  But Trump is a new thing all together, almost transcendent; more concept than man.  I like this, speaking as a writer.  Love it, actually.

On a more serious note, I think he is eventually going to be seen in a lesser light, as the true believers who thrust him upon their tired shoulders find out that promises are one thing and reality is quite another; if anything, he will deliver inflation, which adversely affects… anyone?  Bueller?…  the middle and lower classes.  Asset owners – like Trump – always win and those who go paycheck to paycheck, always lose in inflationary/reflationary regimes.  So if the hype proves true and exported jobs are repatriated, roads, bridges and walls are erected, tax breaks for big corporations are implemented and yet more deficit spending is enacted, it is not the true believers who are going to benefit.

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The Presidential Cycle

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The market has been very readable since before Brexit.  It was over bearish and due for a post-Brexit rally check. It was due for a drop to test major support check, but amid last week’s highly broadcast 9 straight down days and the renewed Clinton email scare, it was due for a bounce from over bearish status check. However, this is not the end of the story. We remain on a test of major support unless certain upside resistance parameters are taken out. Beyond this highly volatile phase, we are likely either going to confirm major support and potentially break out to new highs or a bear market will ensue.

Figuring prominently in the short-term is the US election. Here is NFTRH 420’s weigh-in on something I almost never want to comment on but did in this week’s report, given Donald Trump’s ‘overbought’ status last week.

The Presidential Cycle (graphic sources: FactSet.com) (more…)

Now is Not the Time to be Getting the Yips

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The time to be getting afraid was when the market ramped and sentiment was pinging to over bullish after the Brexit sentiment reset to over bearish had sprung the rally. Now it is too late to start getting the willies because we have full frontal FOMC and the most disgusting, divisive and plain sad election of my lifetime; a lifetime filled with disgusting electoral choices.

Ooh, the economy is okay and inflation signals are bumping up… the Fed’s gonna raise rates in December! Trump might win and the market is gonna hate that!

Just calm down. If you are part of the herd you are supposed to be anxious now. It’s how markets work. If you are not part of the herd then it’s all good and it’s all in line with current plans. Or as NFTRH 419 noted with respect to the following chart…

The VIX is still tame despite the slow leak down by stocks. That is not bullish. Bullish is when people panic, buy already expensive downside insurance (buying volatility, puts, etc.), things get over bearish… and then they rip the thing the other way.

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