Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation?

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With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

First, here is the state of yields and the yield curve currently, on the big picture view.  Trends are down in the deflationary continuum on the biggest picture for all items, but have been neutral on the 5yr and somewhat up on the 2yr ever since Goldilocks gulped the bears’ porridge in 2013.  The yield curve is in a downtrend.

us treasury yields and yield curve

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Market Internals; Prelude to a Crash? Part 2

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The following is an excerpt from the Market Sentiment & Internals segment of the October 16 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 417, which also included technical analysis of US and global stock markets, precious metals, commodities and currencies and macro/market indicator analysis for an overall cohesive view on markets (which still appear in process to the favored plan of an inflationary phase after the expected market disturbance currently ongoing, plays out).

Up Volume has been draining and market breadth has been fading (ref. NYSE Advance/Decline page 10). This is a far cry from the Breadth Thrust we noted in the summer (thank you again to subscriber LN). Per LN’s analysis, the implication was for a temporary rally then further evaluation with the potential for some very bearish activity similar to 1987 (ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? posted on July 12).

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The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished

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I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks.  Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.

As in any market, you are the mark, the target, the food… unless you do the educational work to the degree required in order to have your own – not some expert’s – view on things.  That includes we would-be geniuses who think we can write for you and provide worthwhile information along the way in your decision making process.  The day I stop learning and working to be better is the day I stop doing this, and that’ll be the day they fit me for a pine box.

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US Stock Market, Big Picture View

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Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…

S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support.  Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap.  We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.

spx monthly chart

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Some Highly Technical Analysis For You

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Listen you bloated, levitating sideways going Pig, will you please either break above that red line and the post-FOMC euphoria highs of 9/22 or drop to or through the lower blue wedge line?  You know you are going to do one of those two things soon enough and we’d all just as soon get on with it.  Thank you.

spx daily chart

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