Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Charts Worth Watching

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Just a few of the many charts I am trying to keep an eye on (and yeah, my head is spinning… but in a good way).

First, here is my friend Huey; HUI tickled the top of the longstanding downside target today.  It is now time for gold stock aficionados to be on alert.  The ones who were ready for this as buyers, at least.  Assuming the fundamentals are at least somewhat in order (there has been some short-term damage in that area) the downside would seem to be limited to the April gap, down around 180.  Regardless, technical risk is much reduced now and I bought a couple bombed out, but quality items items today.  No hurry; bounces notwithstanding, this may not be as quick a process as some may hope.

hui daily chart

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Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late, Lot of Dollars Short

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Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex.  Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…

Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)

Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)

Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)

European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)

This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )

Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)

And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused.  I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen.  It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).

But there is no ‘IS’.  There are only probabilities.  A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain.  On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer!  I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?

Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble:  ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly:  “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”

So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday.  Whoop de doo!  The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago.  Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly.  Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.

Now it’s “big Jobs” week.  The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar.  But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).

I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony?  It is unhealthy.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS.

Market & Macro Indicators

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It’s one NFTRH segment among many, and certainly not the sexiest of them.  But it is among the more important ones in my opinion.  I don’t mean to be cavalier (see the end of this post) about the risks built into the markets and into the system.  I started Biiwii.com 12 years ago with systemic risk a primary reason, and that has not changed; it’s intensified.  But functionally, we need to put the tin hats on a hook and operate daily, weekly and monthly without letting emotions take over.

Hence the indicators.  If they go bearish along with market technicals, we’ll catch it, hopefully early, as we usually do with market changes.  We got bullish months ago because that is the way the TA and the indicators went, and I remain un-bearish at this time.

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It’s January 2013, With a Twist

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twisty the clownThe title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be.  The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*

So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view?  Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).

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Yellen: Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole We Go

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featured.yellenWhere once Alan Greenspan was vilified for dropping interest twisty.smallrates too low for too long and thereby inflating a credit bubble (before his bouncing baby bubble forced him to try to head things off at the pass, eventually jacking the Funds Rate back up to 6%), today these very scary clowns talk boldly about buying stocks and other risk assets in order to keep the pretense of a normal economy and stock market intact.  I mean guys, this stuff is supposed to be the product of tin foil and gamma rays, not reality!

Meanwhile, every month or so we are treated to a massively stupid ritual of ‘will they or won’t they?’ as the committee chaired by this woman talking crazy talk is taken seriously by many as it makes its profound decisions (like doing nothing, for instance).

What the hell is monetary policy tightening anyway when you’ve got a backup plan to buy the whole damned stock market and some corporate bonds to boot?  It’s a joke. I can understand why perma bears are perma bears.  This thing is so fake it’s… not laughable… it’s surreal.  It’s Wonderland.  And the whole financial services industry laps it up and plays it straight, as if it is providing a very sensible and buttoned down service to its clients.

Newsflash:  If you’re depending on one of the 95% of advisers out there operating on conventional metrics you are playing little more than a game of ‘gee, I hope the Fed’s latest plans to rig the stock market will work’ because that is the game that the financial services industry is playing.  That is not my bias speaking; it is Janet Yellen speaking.

Yellen says Fed purchases of stocks, corporate bonds could help in a downturn

The Federal Reserve could get benefits from buying assets other than long-term U.S. debt if in a future downturn it could not buy any more government bonds, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday.

Referring to asset purchase stimulus programs in a video conference with a minority bankers meeting in Kansas City, Yellen said: “If we found, I think as other countries did, that they could reach the limits in terms of purchasing safe assets like longer-term government bonds, it could be useful to be able to intervene directly in assets where the prices have a more direct link to spending decisions.”

She’s literally saying that if we run out of safe assets we can purchase unsafe assets (i.e. risk assets) when things go off the rails.  She is also saying that she would hope to leverage that risk into goosing consumer confidence if they show any signs of backing off.  Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the “tools” of the next phase of Federal Reserve experimentation.  I thought that Operation Twist, with its stated goal of “sanitizing” inflation signals by manipulating the Treasury bond market was ballsy; Bernanke after all, made Greenspan look like child’s play.  Yellen?  She’s simply guiding us deeper down the Rabbit Hole.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS.

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