Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Presidential Cycle

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The market has been very readable since before Brexit.  It was over bearish and due for a post-Brexit rally check. It was due for a drop to test major support check, but amid last week’s highly broadcast 9 straight down days and the renewed Clinton email scare, it was due for a bounce from over bearish status check. However, this is not the end of the story. We remain on a test of major support unless certain upside resistance parameters are taken out. Beyond this highly volatile phase, we are likely either going to confirm major support and potentially break out to new highs or a bear market will ensue.

Figuring prominently in the short-term is the US election. Here is NFTRH 420’s weigh-in on something I almost never want to comment on but did in this week’s report, given Donald Trump’s ‘overbought’ status last week.

The Presidential Cycle (graphic sources: FactSet.com) (more…)

Now is Not the Time to be Getting the Yips

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The time to be getting afraid was when the market ramped and sentiment was pinging to over bullish after the Brexit sentiment reset to over bearish had sprung the rally. Now it is too late to start getting the willies because we have full frontal FOMC and the most disgusting, divisive and plain sad election of my lifetime; a lifetime filled with disgusting electoral choices.

Ooh, the economy is okay and inflation signals are bumping up… the Fed’s gonna raise rates in December! Trump might win and the market is gonna hate that!

Just calm down. If you are part of the herd you are supposed to be anxious now. It’s how markets work. If you are not part of the herd then it’s all good and it’s all in line with current plans. Or as NFTRH 419 noted with respect to the following chart…

The VIX is still tame despite the slow leak down by stocks. That is not bullish. Bullish is when people panic, buy already expensive downside insurance (buying volatility, puts, etc.), things get over bearish… and then they rip the thing the other way.

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The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation?

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With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

First, here is the state of yields and the yield curve currently, on the big picture view.  Trends are down in the deflationary continuum on the biggest picture for all items, but have been neutral on the 5yr and somewhat up on the 2yr ever since Goldilocks gulped the bears’ porridge in 2013.  The yield curve is in a downtrend.

us treasury yields and yield curve

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Market Internals; Prelude to a Crash? Part 2

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The following is an excerpt from the Market Sentiment & Internals segment of the October 16 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 417, which also included technical analysis of US and global stock markets, precious metals, commodities and currencies and macro/market indicator analysis for an overall cohesive view on markets (which still appear in process to the favored plan of an inflationary phase after the expected market disturbance currently ongoing, plays out).

Up Volume has been draining and market breadth has been fading (ref. NYSE Advance/Decline page 10). This is a far cry from the Breadth Thrust we noted in the summer (thank you again to subscriber LN). Per LN’s analysis, the implication was for a temporary rally then further evaluation with the potential for some very bearish activity similar to 1987 (ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? posted on July 12).

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The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished

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I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks.  Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.

As in any market, you are the mark, the target, the food… unless you do the educational work to the degree required in order to have your own – not some expert’s – view on things.  That includes we would-be geniuses who think we can write for you and provide worthwhile information along the way in your decision making process.  The day I stop learning and working to be better is the day I stop doing this, and that’ll be the day they fit me for a pine box.

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