Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…
S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support. Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap. We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.
Listen you bloated, levitating sideways going Pig, will you please either break above that red line and the post-FOMC euphoria highs of 9/22 or drop to or through the lower blue wedge line? You know you are going to do one of those two things soon enough and we’d all just as soon get on with it. Thank you.
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Just a few of the many charts I am trying to keep an eye on (and yeah, my head is spinning… but in a good way).
First, here is my friend Huey; HUI tickled the top of the longstanding downside target today. It is now time for gold stock aficionados to be on alert. The ones who were ready for this as buyers, at least. Assuming the fundamentals are at least somewhat in order (there has been some short-term damage in that area) the downside would seem to be limited to the April gap, down around 180. Regardless, technical risk is much reduced now and I bought a couple bombed out, but quality items items today. No hurry; bounces notwithstanding, this may not be as quick a process as some may hope.
Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex. Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…
Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)
Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)
Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)
European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)
This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )
Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)
And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the
gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused. I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen. It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).
But there is no ‘IS’. There are only probabilities. A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain. On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer! I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?
Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble: ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly: “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”
So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday. Whoop de doo! The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago. Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly. Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.
Now it’s “big Jobs” week. The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar. But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).
I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony? It is unhealthy.
Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS.
It’s one NFTRH segment among many, and certainly not the sexiest of them. But it is among the more important ones in my opinion. I don’t mean to be cavalier (see the end of this post) about the risks built into the markets and into the system. I started Biiwii.com 12 years ago with systemic risk a primary reason, and that has not changed; it’s intensified. But functionally, we need to put the tin hats on a hook and operate daily, weekly and monthly without letting emotions take over.
Hence the indicators. If they go bearish along with market technicals, we’ll catch it, hopefully early, as we usually do with market changes. We got bullish months ago because that is the way the TA and the indicators went, and I remain un-bearish at this time.
