Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Up or Down?

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Hello everyone. In my last post I hinted at the fact that if GOOG could go higher, than the market could go higher. Indeed it went higher.

One thing I want to get quickly out of my chest is that I don’t think we are in a Bear Market (I may be wrong).

I think we had a crash after Trump announced its tariffs, and then, as it slowly became more and more clear than the tariffs are not really real, or at least they won’t be what they initially looked like (e.g. read the news today point at a 80% tariffs for China, not 145%, the US President said), well, I think a lot of investors started to correct the initial panic, algos started to buy, and the “Bear Market” is formally over. Can it come back again? Yes, of course, but I see more “quick shocks” rather than prolonged downtrends.

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Close to a New Inflection?

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This just shows you how the model is set up: chart to the left and price/time distribution graphs to the right.

This model interprets a “trend pattern” that has been detected with an algorithm and matched against other similar patterns. No visual charting criteria involved (no head&shoulders, etc.), this is just based on MATHEMATICAL algorithms, i.e. numbers and calculations, it’s all formulas.

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WEEKLY Profit Targets

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It looks like the market may try to rally already this week. If that happens, it’s quite probable that the rally will be short-lived (at least until the current black cloud persists…). So, if the rally is a Bear Market Rally, these models below may help to determine “how far” these rallies can go. These are WEEKLY models, so as a minimum the time horizon is 1 week (or multiples of that), but things are happening VERY fast at the moment, so I would not be surprised to see a 1-week rally and it may even end on Wednesday.

All this said, here are the targets to monitor, to go SHORT again and profit from the next leg down:

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