springheel_jack – Page 106 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Finally Breaking 2500

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (18, Sep 2017 6:16:49 AM)

After a memorably boring four day range consolidation Tuesday through Friday last week, SPX finally broke up and tagged 2500 at the close on Friday. This should follow through to the upside, short term at least, and I have some targets to watch, and a warning that this move over 2500 may well not last the week.

On SPX the obvious trendline target is rising wedge resistance, currently in the 2514 area, and a strong match with rising wedge resistance on the ES chart. On the daily chart (not shown below), there is a possible RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal brewing, but the negative divergence is slight and might well be lost on a green close today or tomorrow. SPX 60min chart:

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Waiting Again

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (14, Sep 2017 12:44:16 PM)

It’s been a generally dull week, and since the bull flag on SPX made target with a new all time high there hasn’t been much movement in either direction. We are still ideally looking for another leg up into the 2509 area but the setup for that last leg up is starting to sour slightly, with hourly sell signals already fixed on ES and the SPX RSI 5. The move should really be in the next couple of days if we are going to see it without a significant retracement first. SPX 60min chart:

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After The Intermission

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (11, Sep 2017 2:26:14 PM)

Last week was an in-between week but the key support levels all held, and after the strong open this week SPX is now close to the bull flag target at the retest of the all time high. I show below that another bull flag channel has now also broken up on NQ, and I’m expecting an all time high retest there as well. SPX 60min chart:

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If, Then

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (07, Sep 2017 1:26:44 PM)

A couple of years ago a long-term reader described me as an ‘if, then’ analyst, and that was a decent description. The short term setup here is very much an ‘if, then’ setup. If short term support holds, then the rally should resume into the flag target at the retest of the all time high.

So where is that support? On the hourly chart that is at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2461 and with the 200 hour MA just below. That’s been tested in the last day or so with more enthusiasm than I would prefer, but that’s holding so far. SPX 60min chart:

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Daily Middle Band Backtested

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (06, Sep 2017 2:47:29 PM)

Yesterday morning’s bear flags broke down harder than expected and on SPX the move delivered a hard test of the daily middle band. That’s not inherently bearish as long as that holds as support and it did. Unless that changes the obvious target remains a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:

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