Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bitcoin Breaking Key Resistance

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the bull and bear scenarios on the big three coins that I cover, with particular focus on the strongest setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). I was also noting the similar setup on equity indices at the same inflection point, which is important as both Crypto and equity indices have tended to be significantly correlated in the past, and there is no current sign that is different here.

Since then both Crypto and equity indices have rallied strongly and are both reached yesterday the verge of a final break up that would look for retests of many of their all-time highs.

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The Obvious Point of Failure

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In my last post yesterday I was looking at the big inflection points in the current rally on US equity indices that could take SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also DIA and IWM, to retests of their late 2024 all time highs.

The first inflection point in this process was at the Monday’s lows and key support, and they rallied there.

The second inflection point was after the initial rallies, and they pushed through to the upside there.

The third inflection point we reached this morning, and if we are to see this move fail hard, then this is the most likely remaining place to see that. Equally, if bulls push through this, on SPX there is a clear path to the all time high retest and that would likely be made.

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Teaching Moment – Walls of Worry

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the big inflection point that has formed over recent week on US equity indices, which were then testing key support. I was liking the positive divergence forming on the index futures and those turned into hourly buy signals and played out during the day delivering significant rallies.

This was encouraging for bulls as, first and foremost, the US indices didn’t break down hard into the bear scenario looking considerably lower and, secondly, that a path has been forming that could take US indices back into the high retests that I was talking about as the obvious targets for the bull scenario.

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As Above, So Below

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I did a post on equity indices before the open this morning talking about the inflection point here and we are looking in essence at the same inflection point on Crypto, as historically both have tended to be significantly correlated and, as you can see on the chart below, there has been no obvious sign that is changing at the moment.

On Crypto we have a clear inflection point where there could be a break either significantly lower or back towards a retest of the recent highs and that is also the case on US equity indices. Whichever way this breaks, they will most likely break in that same direction though, if that break is into high retests on both, then that may well be part of a topping process that just delivers a similar or larger downside move to the one I am looking at today, just a bit later on.

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Decision Time

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In my last post on Tuesday 7th January I was looking at the bull and bear options at the inflection point that had been forming on US indices over the previous few days. On Friday the US indices closed at the bottom of the inflection point and I was talking about that on my The Bigger Picture webinar last night, and what might be in store for us today.

Since then, at the time of writing, ES is down 45 handles, which is a clear break down. Are the US indices now resolving to the downside? Not quite yet in my view.

I was mentioning in last night’s video that there was very little positive divergence on US indices at the close on Friday, but that this could be fixed with lower lows on positive RSI divergence this morning. As I write there are now possible hourly buy signals brewing on ES, NQ, RTY, YM.

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