Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

So Here We Are

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In my last post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean into yesterday and projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs in that bullish window. We saw that all time high retest on QQQ on Friday and on SPX yesterday. So what now?

Well we now have impressive topping patterns on SPX and QQQ and a bearish window has started that runs through to the end of February, with notably bearish leaning days on Thursday and Friday this week, Monday 24th Feb and Friday 28th Feb. We will see how that develops.

On SPX the bullish setup I was looking at last week was a bull flag megaphone and that delivered a very marginal new all time high yesterday. The bearish pattern setup here is now a possible nested double top.

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One Last Heave

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In my premarket video on Friday I was noting the four hourly sell signals fixed (3x) or forming (1x) on ES, NQ, RTY and DAX and saying that we might well see a retracement day. We saw that and all those signals reached target by the end of the day.

In my The Bigger Picture video yesterday I was looking at the support backtests seen on Friday and was looking at the bullish looking setups on SPX and QQQ particularly. So far that looks as though it may be delivering so let’s review.

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The January Barometer & Other Stats

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In my post on Monday 13th January I was looking at the four bull flag setups on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM, and the possibility that the bull flags would break up into retests of the all time highs across all four of those. SPX and DIA have made their new all time highs now, QQQ is getting close and I have some doubts about whether IWM will make it. I’ll review those today but first some historical stats.

The January Barometer is triggered when January closes down, and will often deliver a down year, but unless we see a truly impressive decline today that is now irrelevant for this year.

The second statistic I’ve been looking at today is the record of stock markets in the year after a presidential election. Of the last 21 of those going back to Roosevelt in 1941, eight delivered a down year, making this overall weakly bullish.

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Bitcoin & Solana Bull Flags Breaking Up

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In my last post on Thursday last week I was, among other things, looking at a sharply upsloping H&S on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that had broken down with a target in the 92,000 area, though I was expecting that H&S to reject back up into the highs, and over last weekend Bitcoin broke down into a low at 97.7k.

On the face of it that was looking promising for the H&S to reach target but in my premarket video on Monday I put the case against that, on the basis that so far at least, this was looking like a backtest of the daily middle band as part of a bullish consolidation. In my premarket video on Tuesday I had drawn in the obvious bull flag setups on both Bitcoin and Solana (SOLUSD).

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The DeepSeek Retracement

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In my last post on Wednesday 22nd Jan, I was looking at the various targets for the move up from the January lows on the US equity indices, the all time high retest on SPX, which had just be reached, and the all time high retests on QQQ and DIA, which In my last post on Wednesday 22nd Jan, I was looking at the various targets for the move up from the January lows on the US equity indices, the all time high retest on SPX, which had just be reached, and the all time high retests on QQQ and DIA, which are still outstanding. I was also noting that a retracement to set up less vertiginously steep rising support trendlines on all three of these was overdue.

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