Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Waiting For Solana

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In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the bullish leaning setups on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) Both Bitcoin and Solana had daily RSI 14 sell signals two weeks ago of course, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) also had one fix last week, so now all three have fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals. These are likely signalling a larger retracement coming in the first months of next year, but I’m not expecting to see that in December …. most likely.

On the daily chart Bitcoin had backtested and held the daily middle band last week and I was looking for a new all time high. We saw that over the weekend and Bitcoin is getting close to the 3sd upper band, currently at 108315. That hasn’t been hit yet but, if hit, that may signal the start of another modest consolidation before going higher.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart I have rising support from the November low at 66.8k currently in the 99k area and am wondering whether the next big target might be the channel resistance parallel to that rising support, currently in the 118k area.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Ethereum backtested the daily middle band on the last retracement and held it. I was saying last Wednesday that the next obvious target was a retest of the 2024 high at 4095.77, reached today, and I have an eye on now the next big target, which is a retest of the 2021 all time high at 4865.94.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum 15min chart last week (not shown) there was a double bottom that had broken up with a target in the 4050 area, which was reached of course, and now that the 4095.77 high has been retested I would note that there is a now possible double top setup here on Ethereum, though I’m not seeing any obvious reason to expect that to play out at the moment.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

Solana has been the problem child over the last few days. I was saying on Wednesday that the daily middle band, which had been holding repeatedly as resistance over the previous ten days, needed to be broken and converted to support to open a retest of the all time high at 264.52, and we haven’t seen that yet, with the rally last week failing at the daily middle band again.

SOLUSD daily chart:

There is still a fixed double bottom target at 237.5 to 240 (shown on the 15min chart in my last post), and either Solana makes that target or it then likely retests the last low at 203.30. If seen that may well be the second low of a larger double bottom with a target on a sustained break over 234.75 at a retest of the all time high.

The current setup on Solana is a high quality bull flag channel and 70% this breaks up now or after a low retest. The 30% break down option is worth a look here though as there is a possible large H&S here (not shown on the chart below) that on a sustained break below 200 would have a target in the 138 area. This isn’t something I’m thinking is likely to play out, but in the event that we were to see a hard break down on equities over the next few days, which I’m really not expecting, that could deliver.

Bull flag channel resistance is now in the 233 area, and a sustained break above looks for a retest of the all time high at 264.52.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

On the bigger picture I’m leaning bullish across the board with the caveat that the fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals on Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum are warning that a longer and deeper consolidation may be coming within a few weeks. There is always a chance that retracement might arrive earlier, though December would not be an obvious time to see that.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.15am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I’m also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I’ve been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

Support Breaks on US Indices

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In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the move up from Tuesday afternoon’s low and noting that the almost complete absence of participation on DIA and IWM was a serious concern, as on a pullback on the tech-led rally, we might then see significant support breaks on Dow and Russell stocks.

At the same time the new inflation figures landed and, not to beat around the bush, they sucked, with a 0.2% rise in inflation led by food prices. The consensus seems to be that the Fed will cut rates this month anyway, but I’m doubtful about that, and regardless of that, the rally in bonds seems to have failed to reach the obvious targets and to be resuming the larger downtrend, so in practical terms interest rates, as delivered in bond yields, are already back on an upward path.

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Watching The Solana Bull Flag

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the possibility that a bull flag channel might well be forming on Solana, and that delivered beautifully. Not everyone saw the post of course as you can see from a tweet I saw last night:

Solana (SOLUSD) reached the daily 3sd lower band, often a good area to look for a reversal, tested that twice and has rejected higher. Key resistance remains at the daily middle band, currently at 236, which has held as resistance at the close each day for the last ten days. That needs to be broken and converted to support to clear the path for Solana to retest the all time high.

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A Pause For Breath

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In my premarket video yesterday morning I was looking at the large number of short term sell signs across the equity indices and making the case for a modest retracement before going higher. We’ve seen that modest retracement and might go a bit lower, but a reversal back up directly from here may be seen instead.

There were three short term patterns on US indices that I was looking at yesterday morning, including double tops on SPX and Dow.

On SPX the double top has reached the minimum target, with the extended target a little lower at 6044.

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