Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crypto – So Now What?

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In my last post on Friday I was saying that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had just broken over the previous week’s high at 102.7k and, as I noted on Monday 13th Jan, that was the right shoulder high on the H&S that had broken down. The break up on Friday invalidated that H&S and that break fixed a target at the retest of the all time high at 108.4k.

That target at the retest of the all-time high was reached quickly amid a wild weekend with the launch of Trump and Melania’s astonishingly popular meme coins, and that leaves a possible large double top setup on Bitcoin that I am not taking particularly seriously at this stage.

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Buffing My Fingernails Modestly

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SPX retested the all time high today, and so the first, though not the only, upside target of the upside scenario that I laid out at the start of next week has been reached.

In my post on Monday 13th Jan I was stating that SPX was at the bottom of the big inflection point that has been forming, and that we were likely to see either a serious break down or a rejection back into the highs, showing the possible bull flag setups on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM.

In my post on Wednesday 15th Jan I was looking at the rally from Monday’s low, with the bullish reversal patterns forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA that would likely take them higher, and on SPX should open the test of the main resistance level at the daily middle band That would then need to be broken and converted to support to open the retest of the all time high.

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Bitcoin Breaking Key Resistance

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the bull and bear scenarios on the big three coins that I cover, with particular focus on the strongest setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). I was also noting the similar setup on equity indices at the same inflection point, which is important as both Crypto and equity indices have tended to be significantly correlated in the past, and there is no current sign that is different here.

Since then both Crypto and equity indices have rallied strongly and are both reached yesterday the verge of a final break up that would look for retests of many of their all-time highs.

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The Obvious Point of Failure

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In my last post yesterday I was looking at the big inflection points in the current rally on US equity indices that could take SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also DIA and IWM, to retests of their late 2024 all time highs.

The first inflection point in this process was at the Monday’s lows and key support, and they rallied there.

The second inflection point was after the initial rallies, and they pushed through to the upside there.

The third inflection point we reached this morning, and if we are to see this move fail hard, then this is the most likely remaining place to see that. Equally, if bulls push through this, on SPX there is a clear path to the all time high retest and that would likely be made.

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Teaching Moment – Walls of Worry

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the big inflection point that has formed over recent week on US equity indices, which were then testing key support. I was liking the positive divergence forming on the index futures and those turned into hourly buy signals and played out during the day delivering significant rallies.

This was encouraging for bulls as, first and foremost, the US indices didn’t break down hard into the bear scenario looking considerably lower and, secondly, that a path has been forming that could take US indices back into the high retests that I was talking about as the obvious targets for the bull scenario.

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