Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

As Above, So Below

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I did a post on equity indices before the open this morning talking about the inflection point here and we are looking in essence at the same inflection point on Crypto, as historically both have tended to be significantly correlated and, as you can see on the chart below, there has been no obvious sign that is changing at the moment.

On Crypto we have a clear inflection point where there could be a break either significantly lower or back towards a retest of the recent highs and that is also the case on US equity indices. Whichever way this breaks, they will most likely break in that same direction though, if that break is into high retests on both, then that may well be part of a topping process that just delivers a similar or larger downside move to the one I am looking at today, just a bit later on.

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Decision Time

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In my last post on Tuesday 7th January I was looking at the bull and bear options at the inflection point that had been forming on US indices over the previous few days. On Friday the US indices closed at the bottom of the inflection point and I was talking about that on my The Bigger Picture webinar last night, and what might be in store for us today.

Since then, at the time of writing, ES is down 45 handles, which is a clear break down. Are the US indices now resolving to the downside? Not quite yet in my view.

I was mentioning in last night’s video that there was very little positive divergence on US indices at the close on Friday, but that this could be fixed with lower lows on positive RSI divergence this morning. As I write there are now possible hourly buy signals brewing on ES, NQ, RTY, YM.

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Six Of One …

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In my last post on Monday 30th December I was looking at the options after the big rally from the lows over the previous week. I referred to the prediction I made in my post on 20th December looking for the rally and then lower lows:

‘How long might this rally last? Well given that today is 20th December I’m thinking this rally may well take us into Xmas and fairly shortly thereafter into lower lows. We shall see. ‘

We have now seen those lower lows on US indices and the question now is what happens next. I see two obvious main options here and was looking at these in detail in my premarket video yesterday morning.

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Taking Stock On Crypto

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This is my last post for 2024, and this is a good opportunity to have a bigger picture look at where we are in the current bull market run on Crypto, before I get on to the shorter term setup for the next few weeks. My crystal ball has been mislaid for the moment in an unfortunate dry cleaning snafu, but I will do what I can in the meantime using historical price action and math.

I wanted to show you all my much bigger picture Bitcoin (BTCUSD) weekly log scale chart vs NDX, which is really a very interesting chart. I will quickly go through some of the highlights from this chart.

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Flagging Equity Markets

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In my last post on Friday 20th December I was looking at the very likely rally that I called that day in my video before the open and that we saw start that day on equity indices and Crypto, and I said the following then about that:

‘How long might this rally last? Well given that today is 20th December I’m thinking this rally may well take us into Xmas and fairly shortly thereafter into lower lows. We shall see. ‘

Obviously today is now 30th December, tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, and as I was saying on Friday 20th December, I was expecting the rally to fail into lower lows shortly after Xmas. That may well be in progress now.

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