Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In my post a week ago I was saying that SPX was back on the Three Day Rule, and on the third day SPX closed clearly back below the 5dma, triggering the rule. That means there is a very high probability that the 4114.65 low will be retested in the near future.
SPX daily 5dma chart:
After the violent rally on Thursday and Friday next week the real question here is whether a significant low has been made. There are some signs that might be the case.
On the SPX daily chart the low saw a spike down through the 3sd lower band, generally a good indicator for at least a strong rally, there are possible weekly RSI 5 buy signals brewing on SPX and Dow, a decent looking falling wedge on Dow that looks like a bull flag. That amounts to a definite maybe, though even if the all time high on SPX is retested next, the odds favor at least some more downside afterwards, but I’ll be looking at that in my next post.
(more…)Putin revealed his thinking in a speech last week where he stated (incorrectly) that Ukraine had always been part of Russia historically, and has now followed through on that with what looks increasingly like a full occupation of Ukraine. If he meant what he said in that speech then Ukraine’s time as an independent country may well have ended for the time being, in what is also a harsh warning to any other ex USSR states bordering Russia that are thinking of seeking closer ties with the West, and looser ties with their scary imperial neighbor. Russia may have started to reconstruct the Soviet Union’s old empire, and a new Cold War may be starting here that would align the democratic west against the undemocratic East. That may of course have serious consequences on trade with China in due course.
(more…)Unfortunately the week has become dominated by the news relating to the possible imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia. At the time of writing there has been no invasion, and the consensus view this morning seems to be that there is no credible sign that Russia is backing down yet either. We’ll see, but news could move this tape a long way in either direction.
At the close yesterday SPX closed slightly back over the daily middle band, currently at 4465. Only a slight break, more of a close on the band than over it, but a follow through today would open a possible test of the monthly pivot at 4519.
(more…)Equity indices failed as I was expecting on Friday, but not necessarily for the reason that I was expecting, as it may have been primarily a news reaction to the alert from the US government that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine within the next few days.
These came as unexpected news to many, possibly including the Russian government, which has requested that the US expand on this news further, and it may not be true of course, but either way there is a huge two-way news risk that will hang over the next few days and could deliver large moves in either direction.
(more…)
