Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Choices Choices

By -

SPX did the lower low I was expecting in my last post and found support at the rising support trendline from the March 2020 low, as I had suggested it might.

The strong rally since then is now within striking distance of a retest of the all time high, and if seen, the normal range for the next high of 3% to 4.5% above the 45dma, now at 4598, would now be in the 4736 to 4805 range. That is particularly interesting as that range includes the retest of the all time high at the lower end and I have the main resistance trendline on SPX at the upper end in the 4800 area.

(more…)

Approaching Key Support

By -

I was talking in my last post on Friday about the likely mean reversion move coming that should at least return SPX to a backtest of the 45dma, now at 4549. The low so far today has taken SPX down to the 4565 area, so that is getting close, and SPX is now in an area where it may turn back up, though I think a test of 4540 is likely at minimum before that happens.

SPX daily vs 45dma chart:

(more…)

Thanksgiving Thoughts

By -

UPDATE NOTE – Since I wrote this post last night, SPX/ES has obviously broken down from the asymmetric double top there with alternate targets in the 4540 and 4515 (both SPX) areas, though so far, NDX/NQ has not yet broken down.

So far this week SPX has defied the historically bullish tape over Thanksgiving and that strong historical bullish bias extends into the close on Monday. I was leaning towards seeing at least a backtest of the 4540 SPX area after that but it looks like we may see that before.

MAIN POST – 

The big number on the equity index board at the moment is the high SPX made a few days ago at 5.54% over the 45dma, which closed Wednesday at 4538. SPX is likely topping out here for a reversion to mean move, and the mean I use is that 45dma, so I’m watching for a setup to take SPX back to that area.

(more…)

Choices For Next High

By -

As I was saying in my last post on Monday, the all time high on SPX a few days before was at an impressive 5.54% over the 45dma and, excluding the spike up after the low last year, was one of the highest against the 45dma in the last decade. This is a good indication that SPX is topping out for at least a reversion to the mean move, that mean being the 45dma, currently in the 4517 area.

I was looking for retests of the high on SPX and NDX particularly to set possible daily RSI 14 sell signals brewing, and so far NDX has made a new all time high as expected, and ES (the SPX future) has also made a new all time high on Thursday night. SPX has failed to make a new all time high by less than one handle on Friday but we may well also see that on Monday, at which point a daily RSI 14 sell signal will also start brewing, joining the ones already brewing on ES, NDX and NQ.

(more…)

Mean Reversion Looks Close

By -

The last high on SPX reached a few days ago was an impressive 5.54% above the 45dma, one of the highest readings in the last decade excluding the initial spike up from the March 2020 low, and slightly above the 5.4% reached at the early 2018 high. Coupled with the strong punch over the NDX weekly upper band then, that is a strong indicator that at least a short term high is being made, and I’m looking for a reversion to the mean move back to the 45dma, currently in the 4491 area.

SPX Daily vs 45dma chart:

SPX Daily vs dma
(more…)