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On my last post I was looking at the setup for a backtest of the daily middle band, and SPX delivered that and has then rallied back almost to the all time high retest, which I’m expecting to happen ideally today or tomorrow, as the historical stats for Wednesday and Thursday this week lean significantly bearish.
SPX daily chart:
June is not a bullish month historically on SPX, but it does have some bullish leaning days. Today, the second trading day of the month, is historically the strongest day of the month, with 76.2% green closes on SPX. Yesterday runs equal with Tuesday 15th June for second most bullish day of the month with 66.7% green closes.
Now these don’t always deliver by any means, as if they did the averages would all be 100%, but in a setup where there is obvious unfinished business above at the retest of the all time high on SPX, they generally would, so it is interesting that as the second trading day of June draws towards the close, there is little sign so far of the bulls showing up for work.
Just to review the overall position here. SPX is in a high quality rising wedge from the March 2020 low. Wedge support is currently in the 4110 area and wedge resistance currently in the 4310 area. The next obvious target is a retest of the all time high on SPX, and if SPX continues higher then the next trendline resistance within that rising wedge is that rising wedge resistance, now in the 4310 area, and rising of course.
(more…)In my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net this morning I was looking at the very attractive looking setup on the index futures for a sharp retracement, and since then an H&S has broken down that would look for the 4165 area on ES. That would be a backtest of the daily middle band as support, and as I was explaining looking at the ES chart particularly, this retracement may well go deeper towards the 4100 area.
In my last post on Tuesday I listed the three obvious targets for the current retracement from the all time high on SPX. The highest was the rising support trendline from the March 2020 low and that target was hit at the low yesterday. So far that has delivered a large rally and may well be the retracement low.
If so, then that confirms a rising wedge from the March 2020 low and delivers a clear target for the move of that low at rising wedge resistance, currently in the 3287 area, but rising of course. Possible resistance at the current all time high, but no particularly obvious reason to think that resistance would be found there.
SPX 60min 16Mo chart:
Since my last post we have seen what may be the full backtest on SPX that I was looking at then, but might only be the first leg of that backtest The backtest did not quite reach the 3950-4025 target zone, and none of the three obvious targets were hit at the weekly middle band, currently in the 3980 area, or either of the rising support trendlines from the March 2020 and October 2020 lows (shown below), and the daily RSI 14 sell signal did not make target so I’m leaning towards another leg down, that could happen after an all time high retest to set up a possible double top.
SPX daily chart:
