SPX delivered some wild moves this week, helped along by the White House Staff’s ongoing failure to gain control of the President’s twitter account, but at the end of the week SPX has reached the obvious first target at a test of the 2915 support area, and there is a short term inflection point here. This is the retest of the late June low, just above a big open gap from 2889.67, and is a possible H&S neckline area. If SPX was to rally from here the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 2964 area, and that would set up a possible H&S that on a sustained break down would look for the 2800 area, with obvious serious support on the way at rising wedge support, currently in the 2870 area.
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Topping Out…….. Probably
In my premarket video this morning for daily video service at theartofchart.net I was saying that until demonstrated otherwise I was expecting to see all time retests on ES and NQ before a possible swing high (and potential significant top). That high retest is at 3027.75 on ES and the high today so far has just missed that by 2 handles so far. That full test is likely needed before the turn. There is a very nicely formed nested double top setup formed on ES and SPX and that just needs a decent turn down to set the next move in motion.
(more…)Daily Sell Signals Brewing
In my post last Friday I was talking about the likely retest coming of the new all time high on SPX (and ES), and how that should set possible daily RSI sell signals brewing on SPX (and ES). We saw that ATH retest and marginal new ATH this morning and I am now looking for a high. It is possible that SPX/ES might go a bit higher but I wouldn’t expect much higher and I’d note that there is already a decent quality double top setup here and that on a sustained break below 2964 the double top target would be in the 2923 area.
(more…)Coming Into The High Window
Apologies for the long delay between posts. My wife has been having a serious health issue including some surgery so I have been very distracted.
In my last post I was looking for another high retest, and we have seen that, with a push this week into the psychologically important 3000 area after the close on Friday. So what now? Well the next high window slipped back from late June into the middle of next week, and we are looking for a significant high, and very possibly the 2019 high, to form in this area. In the short term I’m expecting SPX to test the new ATH on ES and I have a high quality possible rising wedge trendline currently in the 3005-10 area which would be a solid match with that.
(more…)Sometimes It’s Just a Flag
SPX made a high early this week, broke down from a decent quality falling wedge and the obvious retracement targets were either the 38.2% or 50% retracements in either the 2840 or 2820 areas before another likely leg up.
Sometimes however any initially promising looking topping pattern evolves into a flag as the index trades gently sideways to down, and so far at least, that is what has been happening here. SPX may yet make a lower low, unless this is a triangle forming here, in which case SPX would likely test triangle support in the 2876-8 area before breaking up into a new high for June. If we are going to see a full retest of the all time high, I would expect to see that on this leg up into the next high window in the last few days of June, and then likely lower.
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