Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPX Rising Channel Support Broken

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I was looking this morning at the decent looking possible rising wedge resistance trendline established on SPX at the highs this week and watching with great interest as rising channel and now possibly wedge support was tested again this morning. The trendline held on the first test and then broke on the second, so there has now been a significant technical break down, and the door is open for a possible significant retracement on SPX/ES. We shall see what develops.

In the short term there is an open 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed yesterday, the 50 hour MA is at 2763/4, tested and the low today, and short term daily close support/resistance is at 2771. If SPX is topping out short term that we may see a high retest to set up the topping pattern for a larger retracement. (more…)

Fine Charts and Great Coffee

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If you read my post on Friday talking about the rising channel on SPX that could deliver an all time high retest within weeks, then you know what I see as the key support level on SPX and that is of course that rising channel support trendline, now in the 2750 area and rising at about 42 handles per week. Until that breaks there’s really not much to talk about on the short side on equity indices.

I would note the resistance area above that is the last really significant resistance area before a retest of the all time high. That area is the ceiling established by three rallies Oct-Nov last year and those three highs were all in the narrow range 2800-17. A break and conversion of that area clears the way for the possible all time high retest that may be coming soon, and SPX is now getting close to retesting 2800.

SPX 60min chart:

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It Sounds Wild But …………….

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At the end of December I posted the SPX monthly chart for subscribers at theartofchart.net talking about the significance of the monthly middle band in bear market moves. I posted the chart on a post here on 24th January when it had become clear that such a close back above was possible, and we saw that close back above at the end of January. What I said in the notes on the chart below was that in the event that we were to see a clear monthly close back above the monthly middle band, then the last time that such a close failed to deliver a retest of the all time high before a significant lower low (under 2346) was in 1957. Obviously I am therefore now seriously considering the possibility that SPX may be on the way to a retest of the all time high, and given the overall setup that might well then be the second high of a major double top.

SPX monthly chart:

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Reversing At SPX 200dma ….. So Far

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My apologies for the lack of an update last week, which was particularly busy. Today I’m going to do a multi-timeframe review of where SPX is now, and the implications longer term of this seven week uptrend having risen this far.

Just to mention, we are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, and if you’d like to attend, you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page. We are also starting our next four week Trader’s Boot Camp on February 18th and if you’re interested you can register for that on our Trader’s Boot Camp February page, though we do charge a modest fee for that of course.

One thing I was talking about was the importance of the monthly close in January relative to the monthly middle band. Historically this has been very important resistance after a serious bear move has started, and since 1957 every clear monthly close back above the monthly middle band at this stage has always delivered a retest of the all time high before any serious lower lows were made. We saw that clear monthly close back above that monthly middle band at the end of January. That high retest has sometimes made the second high of a large double top of course, although on many occasions that has been the start of a new leg up. (more…)

Topping Out, Probably

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SPX went up through both of the annual pivot and 50dma resistance levels and has come close to a test of declining resistance from the all time highs, now in the 2690 area. I was talking earlier this month about the vital importance of monthly closing resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 2664. In the event that there is a clear close in January back above it, then the odds would strongly favor a retest of the all time high before there was anything more than a marginal lower low on SPX. The last time there was a significant monthly closing break back over the middle band in a possible bear market without such an ATH retest coming next was over 60 years ago.

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