Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Clean Clean

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In my last post I was talking about the touch of the rising wedge support trendline that I’d been looking for, and the bull flag that was forming on SPX, that should break up today if not seen on Friday. SPX gapped up through flag resistance at the open today, and the minimum flag target is a retest of the all time high, not seen today but likely coming soon. On the video I was talking about a backtest, which we are watching now, and the ideal target for that would be a backtest of broken flag resistance, currently in the 2922 SPX area. The next possible target below would be a gapfill into Friday’s close at 2913.98.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, SPX, NDX, RUT: (more…)

The Wicked Witch Of the West

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Looking at the average rises and falls on SPX from the start since 1997, the most bearish straight sequence of days of the year are the six days from 19th September through 25th September. Within those six days, usually including the September quadruple witching, the lowest percentage of positive closes is 23rd September at 26.67% and the highest is 25th September at 35.71%. Markets are closed on the 22nd and 23rd this year of course, so that leaves Monday and Tuesday next week leaning historically bearish, and Wednesday through Friday leaning an average of 62% bullish. There is a significant possibility of a retracement in the early part of next week, and there is a decent looking setup here for that.

Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD: (more…)

Looking For A Retracement Low

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Since I was writing on Friday the bull flag megaphone has broken up, a rising wedge formed on ES into yesterday’s high and then that wedge broke down with the obvious target at a retest of the retracement low. So far however this has delivered higher lows on SPX and ES, and ES is again testing key resistance at the weekly pivot at 2884. On a break and conversion of WP the obvious read would be that the next leg up has started, although ………

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ:

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Forming The Bull Flag

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Apologies for the lack of updates this week. I’ve been reorganising my office which has been time-consuming though very satisfying. The video below is the full premarket video that I do every morning at for subscribers and there are quite a few charts at very interesting stages, most definitely including SPX/ES here.

When I was showing the SPX 15min chart in the video I was saying that ideally there would be an early rally today into the mid-2880s to test bull flag megaphone resistance, before a reversal back down towards bull flag megaphone support, now in the 2858 area. That trendline is declining at about 7.5 handles per day so will likely be in the 2854 area by the end of the session.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:

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One Month Closes And Another One Opens

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SPX has made a possible short term high a couple of days ago, but needs to show us more on Tuesday than a retracement to test obvious support at the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2890 area. If that can be broken, and the open gap below it filled, then there is a decent shot here at seeing a retracement into rising support from the late June low, currently in the 2840 area, to confirm the rising wedge from there within the overall rising channel from the overall rising channel from the early May low.

This is the equity index section of my premarket video for this morning which talks more about the evolving setup here. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ:

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