Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Bull Flag Megaphone Taking Shape

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Apologies for the lack of updates this week. It has been extremely busy. I should be back on a more normal schedule next week. Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on FAANG stocks and key sectors tonight, and if you’d like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

It has been an irritating week on the indices, from a promising start on ES/SPX and NQ/NDX, with high quality H&S patterns breaking down on all four, with then the H&S patterns on NQ/NDX failing into higher highs, and then the H&S on ES being invalidated at the highs last night, leaving the H&S on SPX as the sole survivor of the four patterns, having escaped invalidation by 0.13 handles at the highs yesterday. That still has an open target in the 2725 area.

So what is actually happening here? Well the overnight high on ES was very interesting as it established a three touch declining resistance trendline from the high. That was interesting because it suggests that a flag pattern is forming and, as long as that resistance holds, then ES should be on the way to confirm a pattern support trendline. After I recorded the video below I had a careful look to see if I could identify likely targets and I found two, both falling megaphone support alternate trendlines, and by the close today they would be in the 2728 and 2720 areas respectively. If ES trends down today, which I was talking about as a strong probability on the premarket video below, and is looking increasingly likely at the time of writing, then the target for this move is likely to be one of those trendlines. (more…)

An Uncertain Decline Is Often A Bull Flag Forming

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The SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed early this week is still open, there is another on NDX and one is brewing on RUT. Furthermore there are now possible daily sell signals brewing on both NDX and RUT, and if SPX retests the June high then there will also be one brewing on SPX.

Is SPX going to retest the June high? Most likely yes. I was talking about the possibility of that happening in the video below, and on the SPX 15min chart below that there is a double top setup that is acting very strangely until you see that it is actually a perfect bull flag channel that is in fact not acting strangely at all. When that breaks up SPX should retest the high and at that stage we might have a genuine double top setup.

One thing I’d mention though is that the next cycle low window is around 25th June. The longer SPX takes to top here, the shorter and likely shallower this retracement is likely to be. The current possible double top forming now would look for the 2750-60 area, and I’d note that rising support from the early May low would be in the right area in that timeframe.

I’ve left the DX section in today as it’s being very interesting today. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, TF & DX: (more…)

Downside Potential Here

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SPX is at a potentially significant inflection point here, with a setup for a possible sharp retracement. SPX has broken down from a short term rising wedge and formed a possible double top. A possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing and the obvious first downside target on SPX in the event of a significant reversal here would be channel support in the 2740 area. We are looking for a sharp retracement soon and it could well start here.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)

Filling The Island Top Gap – Take Three

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We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I’m trying to think of a catchier name.

Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Testing Double Top Support

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Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.

The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That’s what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I’d expect to see one or the other target reached this week.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)