Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

S&P 500 Index: Naughty or Nice?

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The Momentum indicator has crossed below the zero level on the following Monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), hinting of further weakness ahead.

Major support sits around the 1700 level (confluence of the  50 MA and the 40% Fibonacci retracement level — taken from the October 2011 lows).

Price on the following Monthly ratio chart of the SPX:VIX rallied at the end of today (Friday) to close just above the 100 level — which is a major bull/bear line-in-the-sand level — and, about which, I’ve written in numerous posts here.

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Death Cross Formation on Japan’s Nikkei Index

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Notwithstanding the bearish moving average Death Cross that has now formed on the Japanese Nikkei Index, all three indicators are hinting of higher prices, as shown on the 5-year Daily chart below.

At the moment, major resistance sits at 19000, while minor support is at 17000, with major support at 16000. I’d watch the RSI, in particular, to see whether it can rise (and stay) above the 50.00 level. If so, we may see price spike to 19000 before consolidating — then, either, attempt to penetrate above (and reverse) the moving average cross-over and rally to, potentially, new highs, or drop to new lows around the 16000 level. Otherwise, a hold below 50.00 on the RSI may see price plunge as low as 16000 (or lower), first.

Fed “Double-Talk”

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Just to add to confusion regarding what future direction the FOMC may take regarding whether or not to raise interest rates in 2015, we see this tweet last night…

I would just remind readers that Janet Yellen’s comments last night are HER comments and are NOT the official Fed Policy Statement that was released at their last meeting on September 17th. In their Release, they stated that…


“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”            (more…)

What Is The Fed REALLY Saying?

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Is the Fed really saying that their present economic monetary policy dictates that they treat current economic conditions like they had to in March of 2009 (re: their decision today to leave Fed Funds Rate unchanged at zero to 1/4 percent)?

If so, then what does that say about the health of U.S. banks? Does that mean they’re at the same stress levels as they were in 2009?

If so, then one could rationally conclude that the S&P 500 Index should not be trading 1,323 points higher than it was at the March 2009 lows, as shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below.

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