Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

AAPL Low In? (by Strawberry Blonde)

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I wrote about AAPL and the AAPL:NDX ratio in my last Weekly Market Update.

At the time of writing this post just after noon on Tuesday, AAPL has rallied a bit today, as shown on this 5-Year Weekly chart, in conjunction with today's rally in the Major Indices (as I wrote about earlier at this link). However, it has done so without first testing it s major support level below at 400, so a bounce here may not be as strong a signal to indicate that AAPL's low has, in fact, been made, for now (although its low of 419 came close, so it may be close enough).

 

Today's bounce has occurred on a positive divergence of Momentum, as shown on the 10-day 10 minute ratio chart of AAPL:NDX below, as well as on positive MOM divergence, as shown on the 5-year Daily ratio chart below, to bring it back to just above major support.

We'll see if this major support holds, and whether AAPL can continue to rally…I'd like to see higher volumes enter on such a rally, however, to support such a move. Theoretically, we could see AAPL rally to a confluence level of the bottom of the channel and 2 Fibonacci retracement levels at 472ish (as shown on the Weekly chart of AAPL above).

AAPL is still not out of the woods yet, as it is still, technically, in downtrend on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. As I mentioned in my above referenced post, a failure of AAPL below its major support level of 400 could send it tumbling down to around 350, then 300. It's one to watch to see if it supports any further rally in the Major Indices.

 

 

Money Flow for February Week Four (by Strawberry Blonde)

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Further to my last Weekly Market Update, this week's update will look at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Bank Stocks
  • AAPL and AAPL:NDX Ratio
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • U.S. $

 6 Major Indices

As shown on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts below of the Major Indices, the Stochastics indicator is well in overbought territory on all timeframes (although the NDX and RUT are slightly below on the Daily timeframe), and the Indices are range-bound and trading at/near all-time highs.

I mentioned in my post of February 27th that "market participants have recently been favouring large-cap, more defensive, stocks over riskier, high-beta small-cap and tech stocks, as they have been grinding higher toward their all-time high levels. I'll be watching to see if money begins to start flowing into small-cap and tech stocks any time soon to signal that the markets are willing to take on more risk that may be needed to push all of the Major Indices to new all-time highs and sustain that kind of momentum going forward for the balance of the year. Otherwise, we could see some serious profit-taking and pullback begin in the not-too-distant future in all Indices."

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RUT:RVX Ratio (by Strawberry Blonde)

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Price has fallen and is trading around major support at 50.00 and the Momentum indicator is still above zero on the following Weekly ratio chart of RUT:RVX. A break and hold below 50.00 and the zero level could signal that a big decline is in store for the RUT.

 

 

A look at a 60 min (market hours only) chart of the Russell 2000 e-mini Futures Index (TF) shows that price is currently trading in the vicinity of its lower channel, Monthly Volume Profile POC (pink horizontal line), and Monthly VWAP (yellow). A break and hold below 900.00 could signal much more weakness to come, depending on whether we see increasing volumes on the decline (note yesterday's and today's volume spikes).