Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

November Game Plan

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November is here.  A wild 2023 continues to fly by unrestrained.  In my last post, Autumn Fall, I was looking for weakness to take hold in the markets from the beginning of August through the end of November. The weakness that we have seen over the past three months in markets is what I was anticipating, with roughly 20% declines in IWM and IYR.  As we enter into the beginning of November I ask the question:  Is the selling over for this year, or will there be more bearish opportunities in November?

To attempt to answer that question we’ll be looking at the crude oil analog, as well as the November setups for IWM, SPY, IYR, and XLF.  The crude oil analog below is the chart that I showed in Autumn Fall.  The red box in the top left is the time period of August – November 2013, which should be echoing through the broader market August – November 2023.  The analog is not anticipating the weakness in the broader market to stop until the end of November, followed by a December bounce.

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Toxic Facebook?

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Empathy has been a focus of study of mine for 2023. Most have probably realized the polarizing effects social media has had on us all, but has the technology also effected our empathy? “Empathy burnout” from social media was not a topic I had considered, but according to the statistics below is effecting a large percentage of our population.

“ A March 2022 survey conducted in the United States found that half of all Gen Z respondents said Facebook was the social media platform that contributed the most to empathy burnout. Overall, Baby boomers and Millennials also cited Facebook as the platform most responsible for a decrease in their empathy levels. Additionally, almost a third of Gen Z respondents reported Twitter as the social network most likely to lead to empathy fatigue, followed by Instagram with 20 percent. In total, three quarter of respondents stated that toxicity and misinformation on social media have decreased their empathy levels.”

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Autumn Fall (by TNRevolution)

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Greetings to my Slope family. Now that we’ve made it to August of this year, the bullish combination of seasonality mixed with the March Fed banking bailout appears to be wearing off. I wanted to take a step back and look at the big picture once again, along with some of my primary positions that I’m holding heading into the end of the summer.

First, let’s take a look at the 10 year crude oil to broader market analog. I think this will be important for both the remainder of this year, but I also believe it will be an important guidepost for what is coming down the pike over the next couple of years. As a reminder, what crude oil did ten years in the past gives us a good echo for what to expect the broader market to do in today’s market. This is not a tick for tick, day by day analog. It also focuses on direction, not magnitude of expected moves.

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The Dell Years

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Did you ever wonder how such a successful company as Dell Computers, with an entrenched strategic advantage, lost so badly to Apple?  I’m about to give you an inside scoop.  I worked for Dell from 2003-2007.  This is my story from the inside.

I walked up to the front entrance of Dell Computers in Nashville, Tennessee.  As I entered, I was ushered over to a side room in the lobby to sign some forms, and meet up with a small group of bright, young faces.  After signing our forms, we walked to a security check point at the edge of the lobby to have our pictures taken and security badges created.  Past the security check point, the lobby opened to a large dividing area that separates the two massive wings of the sales complex. 

We took a left, and the scene opened up into a room of wall-to-wall rows of desks, computers, phones, and sales agents as far as the eye could see.  My eyes lit up.  My heart began to beat a bit quicker.  I knew I could be great at this, and I wanted the chance to prove it.  It was orientation day, and I was about to be unleashed on the public.

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