Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Big Blew
Well, if I may offer the bears a faint wisp of hope – – and God knows we need it – – International Business Machines just had a massive failed bullish breakout pattern.
Bed Bath and Rerun
As LZ pointed out today, the last time the garbage stock Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was treated like God’s gift to equities, the market precisely top-ticked its massive rally. I pray to heavenly father we see a repeat of the same thing, thanks to the signal this junk stock is offering.
Crude & Energy Stock Gap (by LZ)
Here are the 2014 and 2018 gaps. In one case CL runs away to the downside and the S&P 500 doesn’t peak until later, in the other XLE catches up amid a broad equities correction
2018 is a closer analog to the current backdrop in equities assuming the rally is done.
Clarity
At the moment, I want the same thing I’m guessing you want: Clarity. Thursday’s rally was annoying. After sleeping on it, I would best characterize yesterday’s action as Wall Street feeding on itself. Nothing fundamental that I’m aware of changed in financial markets yesterday, and thus my overall view of markets did not change either. Let’s take a look at where we’re at, and where we’re heading. The market is moving fast, so I am writing this on Friday at 9:30am CST.
Let’s start by looking at the /CL to /ES analog, and the /GC to /CL analog. The /CL analog looks back at what /CL was doing 10 years ago to give us a useful echo for what we can expect directionally in /ES. I have circled on the below chart where we are currently, as well as where the expected bottom is (the election). This analog gives clues about direction, not magnitude, and it continues to point aggressively lower into the mid-term elections in November. After the election, the analog points to an uptrending /ES market into the summer of 2023.
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