Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Ratio Analog (by LZ)

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Here’s the USO/TLT ratio layered with the SPY/QQQ ratio and, on the second chart, the inverted SPY, both synched.. This looks like late May to me.

Bright side: this rally won’t have much further to go if USO/TLT continues rising. 

Dark side: this isn’t fast enough to be actionable right away. My gut says above ES 3820 there is more pain for bears.

Looking out beyond the immediate days ahead, the outlook for NASDAQ darkened. The outlook for the U.S. dollar strengthened. Rising oil (Japan, EU, China all import and have to spend reserves or print local currency) and rising interest rates have been bullish for USD this year. As long as stocks aren’t frontrunning positive developments yet to come in bonds and energy, the rally is on borrowed time.

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Fear & Failure

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Let me share a personal experience and hope you and I can both learn something from it.

I’m not sure precisely when it began, but this premium post from March 7th is a good place to start. In the post, I make it abundantly clear that the real estate fund IYR is one of my favorite analogs of all time (using such words as “crazy about this analog” and “just ga-ga”). I’m certain this wasn’t my first post about it, but it is at least one where I put a stake very firmly in the ground that I am bonkers about the IYR short.

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Analog Back in Play (by XerxesTraderGF)

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I know I said I wouldn’t bring up my current trade again, except I am a bit excited at the prospect that scenario “A” may still occur, in which we follow a path similar to 2001. If this path holds true, then there is only slight support to be expected around 4100. That will likely yield the last big short opportunity before heading back for new lows in the fall. This week/month really did try to f*** us bears over, but a bear market rally is a bear market rally. Now, obviously things won’t match exactly, but my focus is on seeing 4325 be the last true top to this ridiculous rally. Best of luck next week everyone. Enjoy your weekend!

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