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Ya know, if I was making a list of my favorite trading weeks of all time, this week wouldn’t even make the top 500. It’s been kind of a drag, so I’m distracting myself with SlopeCharts. In doing so, I present to you an interesting 1973/2022 analog by way of our Layered Charts feature.
Cisco from twenty years ago, and Nvidia today, courtesy of Layered Charts:
Good Lord, I just noticed I did a DOZEN posts over the past twenty-four hours. You people must be feeling absolutely saturated with my content.
I know I said I wouldn’t bring up my current trade again, except I am a bit excited at the prospect that scenario “A” may still occur, in which we follow a path similar to 2001. If this path holds true, then there is only slight support to be expected around 4100. That will likely yield the last big short opportunity before heading back for new lows in the fall. This week/month really did try to f*** us bears over, but a bear market rally is a bear market rally. Now, obviously things won’t match exactly, but my focus is on seeing 4325 be the last true top to this ridiculous rally. Best of luck next week everyone. Enjoy your weekend!
Let’s start off with a simple fact: out of 100,000 people, you’ll find maybe one true bear among them. There’s hardly anyone that’s ever going to posit a bearish argument about the stock market, because they have no vested interest in doing so. Not the carnival barkers on CNBC. Not the equity-pushers from Goldman Sachs, And, God knows, never, ever from any Wall Street analyst. 365 days out of every year, their message is the same: “Buy, Buy, and Buy some more.”
Thus, it is no surprise that we’re seeing a particular “fact‘ being pushed onto the public, stating in no uncertain terms that there has never been an instance in the history of the universe when a market has recovered more than 50% of its price plunge and failed to soar forward into a new bull market. I am seeing this argument absolutely slathered all over Twitter………..
I’ll start by stating the obvious: It’s been a rough month to be a bear. I had warned about 3920 being a devastating technical level should we break above it. I’ll also admit that my “warning” was more for myself as others were already sounding the BULL alarm prior to that, but that was my technical level to watch. SPX successfully broke above that descending channel on July 19 and has continued a powerful rally since then, breaking through an important technical resistance zone, specifically 4080-4180. And here we are now thrust up just under 4300. Trying to come up with a bearish case is a very difficult prospect given this straight shot up. However, I would expect some volatility to reenter the market at the nearby technical levels as I expect anyone who got long near 3900 would like to take some profits near 4300 at the very least.
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