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Bored as I was with the “markets”, I was thumbing through some layered charts, and I stumbled across this forgotten gem. Below is the DBC (the commodity ETF) in 2008 (red line) and today (blue line). It’s an interesting analog, for sure:
It seems like we’ve been talking about the IYR analog since John Kennedy was in office. This thing moves so damn slowly. The flip side is that if the pattern does complete, the move will likewise be powerful and persistent.
As a reminder, the “analog” actually doesn’t exist anymore, but only because the recent topping pattern is so much better than what took place pre-Covid. The trio of exponential moving averages is definitely behaving itself properly.
See these? I want it known, for the record, there are not called Bullish Bases. They’re something very different. And although it isn’t shown in this timespan, the present one looks much more like the 1929-1930 top that any others elsewhere on the S&P 500 history.
“Have we capitulated yet?”
“Stocks are oversold. Surely it’s time to buy!”
“I’m seeing bargain-prices for high-quality stocks everywhere.”
Uh-huh. Just keep the chart below in mind, which was kindly sent to me by a fellow reader.
