Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Occam’s Razor

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I was expecting yesterday’s post to be a bit controversial and it was. However the job of the analyst is to see the evidence, assess it, and analyze the relevant data to reach a conclusion. This might be described as the SAA method. If you reverse this to start with your conclusion, you risk making an AAS out of yourself. 🙂

Occam’s Razor is the proposition that when there are a number of competing hypotheses to solve a problem, then the simplest hypothesis is likely to be the correct one. In essence this is a mathematical expression of the truism that if something looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and acts like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. (more…)

Brave New World

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I’m planning a series of weekend posts that will be linked together under the title of Brave New World. There are following up from the series of major resistance breaks on SPX over the last twelve months, and will be putting the case for seeing what could well be a massive bubble on equities over the next few years, now that all those obvious reversal levels have been broken.

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Sunny Skies Equities Die

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As I’m writing this the S&P is in beautiful new all time high territory.  The concept of a correction has now been downgraded to, at worst, a gap down in the morning to be bought and at best, a five point intraday drop.  This is the world we live in.  And the consensus seems to be that this will continue for the foreseeable future.  Every central bank in the world is printing, there is zero fear, and we are now in Livermore’s AOT market meaning “buy any old thing.”

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