Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Brave New World Series: 1 – Secular Cycles

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Brave New World Series

1. Secular Cycles on Equities

For those who aren’t familiar with them there are two types of overall market trend. The first is the primary or cyclical market, and these are bull or bear markets lasting between a few months to (more usually for primary bull markets) two to five years with a move in excess of 20%, and on this basis since 2009 we have seen a primary bull market from March 2009 to May 2011, a primary bear market from May to October 2011, and another primary bull market from October 2011. (more…)

Say Hello To My Little Friend

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HE’S BACK….

Alright, let’s examine our little friend XLU:SPY. As you’ll recall (you’ve seen this chart about 5 times in the last 3 months) that this is the relative chart where utilities are compared to the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, I use the SPY because it is a liquid etf . When the SPY is strong, the red line goes down and when the XLU is outperforming the broader market, the red line will go up. The black line in the back is the SPY. (more…)

Occam’s Razor

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I was expecting yesterday’s post to be a bit controversial and it was. However the job of the analyst is to see the evidence, assess it, and analyze the relevant data to reach a conclusion. This might be described as the SAA method. If you reverse this to start with your conclusion, you risk making an AAS out of yourself. 🙂

Occam’s Razor is the proposition that when there are a number of competing hypotheses to solve a problem, then the simplest hypothesis is likely to be the correct one. In essence this is a mathematical expression of the truism that if something looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and acts like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. (more…)

Brave New World

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I’m planning a series of weekend posts that will be linked together under the title of Brave New World. There are following up from the series of major resistance breaks on SPX over the last twelve months, and will be putting the case for seeing what could well be a massive bubble on equities over the next few years, now that all those obvious reversal levels have been broken.

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