Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The CPI Reaction

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The big event before us is, of course, the CPI tomorrow, one hour before the opening bell. Back in late 2022 and most of 2023, each CPI was reliably a kick-off point for Yet Another Huge Rally. The most vicious one of all, naturally, was October 13, 2022, a date I will never, ever forget! Each of these red vertical lines marks the day of the CPI report, thanks to SlopeCharts‘ spiffy Event Marker feature.

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Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come

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Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the Treasury bond yield curve (10yr-2yr) is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro signaling (the bond market) and gives us a view into the dynamics between short and long-term yields. In the bond market, duration means a lot.

For one example, long-term bonds are much more vulnerable to inflation’s negative effects than short-term bonds. Short-term bonds also act as a liquidity haven during deflationary market crises. Long-term bonds can work quite well during disinflationary times and pay out better income than short-term bonds, but in a full out deflation scare when the very system (and its exponential debt load) comes into question insofar as you want bonds, you want short-term (in my experience 1-3 year Treasury, T-bills and Treasury Money Market). In other words, relative safety.

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