Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Interim Disinflation Within Inflation

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The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro

Sometimes I feel as though I write the same public article over and over. But that is because the changes since 2020, and especially 2022, have been profound from a standpoint of market management. In NFTRH we define and employ that management.

In line with our long-standing view that the now inflationary macro would undergo its first countertrend, an interim disinflationary trend, Treasury bonds from the shortest durations on up to the longer durations are on plan.

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A Disinflationary Path……

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……….to the Next Inflation Problem

The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary

With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working to since 2023. After the macro not so subtlety obliterated its decades-long trend of disinflationary signaling in favor of inflationary signaling by the Treasury bond market, a cool down was in order.

To review, our “Continuum” chart was primary in keeping NFTRH, its writer, and its subscribers on the right side of the macro since the service was born in September, 2008 (into the teeth of a major macro liquidity event).

For example, you may recall the “Great Rotation” hype of 2013. That was when a bond market bear was supposedly brewing and a rotation into stocks would be at hand. Well, that second thing happened, but it was not at the expense of the bond market, as the 30yr Treasury yield rose to the EMAs 100 & 120, smashed against them, and reversed. That was one of several instances over 4 decades that the Continuum was tested, but remained in disinflationary lockdown.

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