A typical couple enjoying their (presumably) debt-financed breakfast in bed (image via Affirm).
(more…)Not-So-Transitory Inflation
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
How It Started/How It’s Going
As we approached the CPI number this morning, the bulls finally were feeling the wind at their backs. The modest bout of weakness in recent days surely would be reversed by the Fed Put. Thus the ES was zipping higher, as it has done for a dozen years…….
Coal Gaining Headlines
Stagflation, Coal style
My definition of Stagflation is ‘inflation that works to impair the economy’ (as opposed to appearing as a benefit as it does early on) and the problem is gaining momentum in India (and China).
China isn’t the only huge Asian economy with a coal shortage now
I usually make fun of MSM sources like CNBC (MarketWatch, etc.) with their dumb, herd scattering, eyeball harvesting headlines. But this stuff is real. Per this post on my coal holding BTU…
“I know as much about coal for energy and steel making as I do about nuclear thermal propulsion. That is, basically nothing.”
Well, now I know more. Every once in a while men who stare at charts…
(more…)Why Gold Isn’t Going Up (But Oil Is)
When the Rope Slackens
Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in 2008 the curve morphed from an inflationary steepener to a deflationary one and that’s an important distinction.
You’ll notice that a blessed Goldilocks economy is mentioned below as a less favored option for 2022. She runs with a flattening curve like the one during the 2013-2019 phase. If it steepens forget about Goldilocks and prepare for either an inflationary or deflationary steepener.
