Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fed “Double-Talk”

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Just to add to confusion regarding what future direction the FOMC may take regarding whether or not to raise interest rates in 2015, we see this tweet last night…

I would just remind readers that Janet Yellen’s comments last night are HER comments and are NOT the official Fed Policy Statement that was released at their last meeting on September 17th. In their Release, they stated that…


“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”            (more…)

Senior Prom

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Since I have absolutely nothing new to say about the markets, I just thought I’d close out the day to briefly comment on the remarkable event at the end of Yellen’s speech, which many Slopers watched live and commented upon in this post. The speech itself wasn’t particularly exciting (to put it kindly), and Yellen actually has an oddly soothing voice which was lulling most of us into a gentle sleep. Very near the end of the speech, it was clear something was wrong. I thought she was missing the last page of her speech, or she had become very, very lost, and watching this real time, it was pretty surreal…….

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Awaiting Granny

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It seems people are really, really hung up on the fact that our Chief Oatmeal Cookie Baker is making a speech this afternoon. What’s she going to say? That she’s awaiting more data? That they’ll lift rates when it’s appropriate? Listen, people, they are never going to raise rates, and if the market gods smile upon me, her effect on the market will be little different than it was one week ago today, when she did her usual blather which sent the Dow into a 1,000 point tailspin. Look, I’m sure she’s a nice old lady. It’s just too bad she gets all this attention.

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As for myself, I lightened up today (down from 170% committed to 125%, and down from 117 positions to just 88 shorts). I intend to crank it up ungodly aggressively next week. It was a good day overall, my portfolio pushing up 0.93% versus the overall market being down 0.29%.

Bonds Away

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Reuters Poll: Most Primary Dealers See December Rate Hike

In an article late last week (“Wall Street banks eye December forFed liftoff“), Reuters reported the result of its poll of primary dealers on the prospects of a Fed rate hike over the next several months:

Twelve of the 17 primary dealers, or the banks that deal with the Fed directly,polled said they expect the Fed to raise rates in December. Two pegged the date in October, and three in March 2016.

When Interest Rates Rise, Bond Prices Fall (more…)

Exodus 8:2

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We may be through with the past, but the past isn’t through with us.

I’m a big fan of history, and although I’m not a trained historian, I wrote a book about history through the lens of financial markets called Panic, Prosperity, and Progress (which has 22 reviews on Amazon, averaging 4.9 out of 5 stars………..so it can’t be that terrible). As part of this, I enjoy thinking of the arcs of history, particularly financial history, and anticipating where we might be going. This post is just such an exercise.

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