Yes, yes, I know, Bitcoin had a great run from 2009 to 2019. There’s no doubt about it. But let’s focus on the past few years, in light of gold’s fantastic performance this year:
Physical Beats Digital
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bitcoin’s Path
Assets are all joined at the hip. Gold. Equities. Bitcoin. It’s all the same. They tend to move up and down together. Because of that, crypto merits respect, even if its own wanderings are just an approximation of what equities are doing. Here’s the thing that’s important to remember: in spite of all the lunatic price projections for Bitcoin over the years, the price is lower NOW than it was 41 MONTHS AGO. Yep, buying Bitcoin in April 2021 would have yielded you a loss after all this time.
More germane for the present, BTC has still been engaged in a series of lower highs, which is the very essence of a downtrend (albeit a recent one). Don’t count on BTC to save the day anymore.
In The Big Inflection Point on Crypto
A week ago I led with a chart looking at the strong correlation between SPX and BTCUSD (Bitcoin). I was talking about the big inflection point likely coming up on SPX, and SPX is in that inflection point now, at a stage where it could very much break either way, though the Fed gave bulls a big boost yesterday. Whichever way SPX breaks here, Crypto will likely follow to a significant degree.
On the Bitcoin daily chart, the daily middle band was backtested and held as support. BTCUSD has also broken back over the 50dma, and is close to a test of the 200dma currently at 63985. Bitcoin is looking a bit stretched at the moment, over the daily upper band currently at 62775, but still well short of the daily 3sd upper band currently at 65078.
(more…)Maybe BTC Will Help
I believe the main question before us is simple: how high will the bounce go, and how long will it last? OK, that sounds like two questions, but it’s really one super-question. I feel highly confident that the end of the bounce will take place within the next ten trading days – – probably WELL within – – but it’s important to try to get this right. I suggest let’s keep an eye on Bitcoin as a proxy for the general zeitgeist out there. Yeah, I know, it isn’t a stock index, but it’s the psyche I want to follow, not a specific instrument.
The Rantings of Lunatics
Look, I try to be careful when I say anything about Bitcoin, because these HODL freaks make Scientologists look positively sensible. I must share, however, the latest ramblings of these nut-jobs, who actually think speculating on the price of something over a quarter century from now isn’t an abject waste of time. Good God, these people are insane.
