Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bus Stop

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Many years ago, in the early 1990s and the beginning of my company Prophet, my partner said something to me at the time that I’ll never forget. He pointed to our rack of modems and said, “This is dumb.”

I’m not exactly sure what he meant at the time, nor am I sure to this day, but I believe what he meant was that the notion of:

  1. a phone line on the customer’s end;
  2. a modem on the customer’s end
  3. a dedicated phone call (often long distance);
  4. a phone line on our end;
  5. a modem on our end

All for the purpose of establishing ONE connection was ridiculous and would be surpassed by something better one day.

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The Crucial Funds

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It should first be noted – – nay, emphasized – – that these charts and the words about them are being composed the day before the monthly CPI number is released. Although the CPI was absolutely meaningless for years and years, it has now become an even more important data point than the jobs report, since inflation data has an outsized influence on market strength or weakness. Thus, if you are reading this any time after the CPI of November 14th is released, the conclusions offered may be moot.

Having begun with that important disclaimer, I will say that the ten charts of the ETFs that follow bear an important common element: they have all moved powerfully up toward key resistance levels. In almost all these cases, the resistance is represented by a simple horizontal line (or, its equivalent, a Fibonacci level). Some prices are closer to resistance than others, but on the whole it can be said that (1) the more of these that fail to cross above these lines, the better chance bears have of seizing control of the market again; (2) the more of these lines are crossed to the upside, the higher the chance the bulls will simply continue running roughshod over the bears through at least the end of the year.

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The Fingerprint of a Moment

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In order to make this post a bit most comprehensible, I’d like to make mention of the lovely little novel written in 1884 called Flatland. Most of you know of it, I would suppose, but for those who don’t, it is the tale of a world of two dimensions in which various creatures (each of them a different shape) experiences life and goes about their business. Their perception within the confines of their two-dimensional world is one-dimension, since they can only “see” the edge of any other given inhabitant of their domain. Social status is governed by the number of sides one has, with the highest priestly caste living as a circle. Assessing the relative status of another citizen is accomplished by the two shapes rolling against one another, carefully gauging just how many sides the other fellow possesses so you know how to behave.

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