It seems to me that ARKK is ready to roll over here.
Short Cathie D. Wood
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
After Market Probabilities
SPX, NDX and RUT
All the US indices are now pretty overbought, with the NDX in particular being the most overbought (6 days up in a row).
My NDX DAILY SHORT model shows a very high probability of reversal, however probability is a statistical assessment, so we cannot exclude the scenario where the NDX closes higher, again, on Tuesday. That would be 7 days up in a row.
(more…)Ratio Charts Update
I’ve gone through my entire ratio chart list (that is, those charts compromised of two or more symbols to create a unique presentation of some financial information) and wanted to share the most interesting ones with you.
The first is the simplest: it is the NASDAQ 100 index divided by the Russell 2000. Ever since 2006, this has been climbing relentlessly, demonstrating how massively valued tech has become. Keep in mind, this isn’t just illustrating the growth of the market; it is showing the growth of the market divided by the growth of the same (U.S. common stocks) market, but with different components.
Pullback in the Offing?
……But Then It May Go Higher
Good morning everyone, here is the updated DAILY HEAT MAP for probability of reversal for SPX,NDX and RUT indices, after yesterday’s DAILY Close: all the 3 indices are short-term overbought according to my statistical pattern trend model. They can certainly go higher, but one can start to try short trades from here.
I am a big fan of Vertical Spreads (BearCALLs, BullPUTs) because you can enter the trade exactly at the close, and that goes hand-in-hand with my time model (consecutive closes in one direction), and as long as the next close is 0.01 point away from your Strike, you will profit.
So with Vert.Spreads Options you do not need to predict the extension of the price move, it simplifies your forecast, it makes it more “robust” because you have one less variable to consider (i.e. no price variable).
(more…)SPX DAILY Probability Analysis
Hello everyone — after a bit of a hiatus, I’m back. I’ve been busy behind the scenes building a few new tools that I hope you’ll find useful in your trading.
Below is a small table showcasing three markets I’m currently analyzing using a DAILY model. I also track other markets using a WEEKLY model. The choice of timeframe isn’t random — it’s driven by options expiry cycles. Since these models are designed to work hand-in-hand with options trading, I align the model’s frequency with the available expiries. For example, SPX has daily expirations, so it gets a DAILY model. Stock ABC, on the other hand, might only have weekly expiries — so it gets a WEEKLY model. Simple logic.
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