Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Pullback in the Offing?

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……But Then It May Go Higher

Good morning everyone, here is the updated DAILY HEAT MAP for probability of reversal for SPX,NDX and RUT indices, after yesterday’s DAILY Close: all the 3 indices are short-term overbought according to my statistical pattern trend model. They can certainly go higher, but one can start to try short trades from here.

I am a big fan of Vertical Spreads (BearCALLs, BullPUTs) because you can enter the trade exactly at the close, and that goes hand-in-hand with my time model (consecutive closes in one direction), and as long as the next close is 0.01 point away from your Strike, you will profit.

So with Vert.Spreads Options you do not need to predict the extension of the price move, it simplifies your forecast, it makes it more “robust” because you have one less variable to consider (i.e. no price variable).

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SPX DAILY Probability Analysis

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Hello everyone — after a bit of a hiatus, I’m back. I’ve been busy behind the scenes building a few new tools that I hope you’ll find useful in your trading.

Below is a small table showcasing three markets I’m currently analyzing using a DAILY model. I also track other markets using a WEEKLY model. The choice of timeframe isn’t random — it’s driven by options expiry cycles. Since these models are designed to work hand-in-hand with options trading, I align the model’s frequency with the available expiries. For example, SPX has daily expirations, so it gets a DAILY model. Stock ABC, on the other hand, might only have weekly expiries — so it gets a WEEKLY model. Simple logic.

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