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Here below is a heat map showing the probability of reversal for a number of US markets I track.
NVDA and GOOG and AMZN are overbought (the latter is less overbought than its peers, only 68% prob. of reversal).
META sticks out as the sore loser: it has been down for 3 weeks, and it is quite oversold, overall 82% probability of reversal.
(more…)I don’t tend to use indicators much, but I was curious what the Bollinger Bands had to say about the big cash indexes. Here are three, and they’re all in the same configuration: wildly elevated prices are mashed up against the upper bands across the board.
Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw of course.
Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario.
In my last post on 23rd Jun I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.
(more…)I was checking out the probability of reversal for the three main US indices today after the close:
The NDX stands out as the most probable candidate for a pullback on Friday.
SPX and RUT may follow through but you never know, there have been quite a lot of discordance moments between these 3 indices as of lately.
(more…)Back on Tuesday 3rd June I laid out a possible bullish scenario in which I was looking for retests of the all time highs on SPX and NDX, with follow-on targets if both ran higher, a retest of the all time high on INDU, and a possible longer shot retest of the all time high on IWM based on a large IHS. Since then we have seen all three of those new all time highs on SPX, NDX and INDU, and the IHS on IWM has broken up hard and made it slightly less than halfway to the target at a retest of that all time high.
What we haven’t seen yet is the further extension to the possible trendline targets that I was looking at on SPX into the 6450-6500 area, or on NDX into the 24000-24500 area, or the new all time high on IWM of course, but I think this rally is likely now very close to at minimum to a steep retracement and may currently be making the highest highs that we will see in 2025.
(more…)
