Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rolling Over

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So far, the reversal at strong resistance at the monthly middle band and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low is proceeding as expected. The next three weeks lean bearish, with strongly bearish leaning days Thursday 11th May, Wednesday & Thursday 17th & 18th May before we see the next strongly bullish leaning day on Thursday 25th May. This is a good time for SPX to turn down and do some significant damage to the downside.

In the short term the downtrend has started well, the daily middle band, and weekly and monthly pivots at 4130 have been converted to resistance and SPX tested the daily lower band yesterday.

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Copper/Gold Ratio

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“The metals” is not a thing says the Copper/Gold ratio; but a more in-depth macro view is required as this Greed/Fear ratio breaks down

To preface, I have no right to be right about the markets. All I have are indications that the herds either don’t know about or don’t care about (I know this by relative Twitter follows and, I assume, website popularity compared to promotional interests tending the herds and instigating their greed). *

So, any post like this can turn out to be wrong if, in this example, the Copper/Gold ratio somehow reverses, turns and burns, painting me as wrong headed. But it has not done that. What it has done is continue with the favored NFTRH macro theme that has been in place for most of the last year. That theme is that while the herds focus on backward looking indicators (and promotions), the forward looking ones have pointed to a continuum of inflation>disinflation>deflation scare in the interim to any new inflation cycle out on the distant horizon.

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A Decent Start

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So far, the reversal at strong resistance at the monthly middle band and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low is proceeding as expected. Monday was bullish as expected, there are high quality double tops formed on SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and INDU/YM. Yesterday there was a decent rejection from Monday’s highs and today, leaning 61.9% bearish, would be a good opportunity to confirm yesterday’s slight closing break below the SPX daily middle band.

The next two weeks lean bearish, with strongly bearish leaning days today, Thursday 11th May, Wednesday & Thursday 17th & 18th May before we see the next strongly bullish leaning day on Thursday 25th May. This is a good time for SPX to turn down and do some significant damage to the downside. The key to the day in my view is whether the weekly and monthly pivots, both currently at 4130 can be converted to resistance today. If we see that and the daily middle band breaks with any confidence, then the path to the downside will be open.

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Mayday

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SPX broke up through the possible H&S setup on Friday and delivered a full retest of the April high, closing the month six handles under key resistance at the monthly middle band and testing the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low. So what now?

Well, this is the main resistance that SPX has been failing at, and we now have the high quality topping pattern that I’ve been looking for, on decent quality hourly negative divergence, with matching topping patterns and divergence on other indices. This is the inflection point, right here, and the odds strongly favor SPX failing here into at least a strong retracement, and very possibly a leg down into a new bear market low.

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