I was saying on Wednesday that the decent looking bullish setup was still there, but in the light of the Fed Chairman’s candid comments about future policy over the last few days a significant drive higher was looking improbable. I was looking for a test of weekly pivot at 4007 and then a fail there if we were going to see the bull scenario fail. SPX made it back to 4017 and failed hard, so the bull scenario, while not quite entirely dead, is now looking increasingly unlikely.
(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Golden Slumbers
Remember how everyone was jizzing all over themselves about the “Super Golden Cross” (honest, that’s what they called it, for real) a few weeks ago? Well, it seems to be sputtering a bit. Strictly speaking, the 50 day is still (barely) above the 100 day, but it’s completely wimping out at crossing the 200, and it wouldn’t take much for us to sink once again to the configuration that God intends, which is all three moving averages headed lower.
Suffice it to say, this wasn’t the “infallible” (again, their word, not mind) BUY signal that the shills in the media were endlessly harping. Stay tuned. I know you will.
Two Macro Market Signals Positive
Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for change. Meanwhile, the Q4-Q1 broad rally continues:
Two positive macro market signals
Last week we noted two market leadership signals, one positive (Semiconductor and Tech leadership) and one potentially negative (Healthcare relative to the broad market). The potential bottom in the XLV/SPY ratio looks like less of a potential one week later (positive for the markets) as the would-be low got bent out of shape, and Semi and shorter-term Tech leadership are still intact.
(more…)A Matter of Degrees (by Xerxes)
Everyone has different biases. As we try to improve as traders we can try to minimize the impacts of these biases, but those biases can still manage to creep up in our blind spots. As such, it is always worth reviewing different perspectives than your own. What I find interesting is how close those perspectives may be off by only a couple of degrees.
Upcoming Month to Remember (by Xerxes)
Note from Tim: be sure to check out the prior post, which has a very important announcement. I did not want to get in the way of Xerxes’ contribution, below, so on with the show……….
While there has been no shortage of astonishing and frustrating market action in the past 12 months in both directions, I am of the mind that this market is ready to break down. As with most things in Technical Analysis, the power of 20/20 hindsight is our biggest strength (ironically). Now that we see how we got to where we are at, we can make an assumption as to the future path. From what I have seen, the next month’s actions should make a deterministic move in either direction.
