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I had been reading on and off for a month or so that ChatGPT had been forecasting a market crash on the Ides of March this year, and so was watching that with very mild interest yesterday to see whether this latest claimant to the Nostradamus throne might have any luck, but the day passed without a crash as expected. Predicting apocalypse is a famously tricky endeavour. Better luck next time I guess.
My usual posts would focus on a specific direction in the market (and for about a year now, most of the time, that direction was down). But after today, I honestly have no clue where we go. From a strictly technical perspective the charts have been very muddied with the action this week. I’ll go into this first and discuss fundamental changes next.
After peaking on Groundhog Day (naturally………) the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has roared back into Bear Mode, thank God.
I was saying on Wednesday that the decent looking bullish setup was still there, but in the light of the Fed Chairman’s candid comments about future policy over the last few days a significant drive higher was looking improbable. I was looking for a test of weekly pivot at 4007 and then a fail there if we were going to see the bull scenario fail. SPX made it back to 4017 and failed hard, so the bull scenario, while not quite entirely dead, is now looking increasingly unlikely.
(more…)Remember how everyone was jizzing all over themselves about the “Super Golden Cross” (honest, that’s what they called it, for real) a few weeks ago? Well, it seems to be sputtering a bit. Strictly speaking, the 50 day is still (barely) above the 100 day, but it’s completely wimping out at crossing the 200, and it wouldn’t take much for us to sink once again to the configuration that God intends, which is all three moving averages headed lower.
Suffice it to say, this wasn’t the “infallible” (again, their word, not mind) BUY signal that the shills in the media were endlessly harping. Stay tuned. I know you will.
