Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Two Macro Market Signals Positive

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Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for change. Meanwhile, the Q4-Q1 broad rally continues:

Two positive macro market signals

Last week we noted two market leadership signals, one positive (Semiconductor and Tech leadership) and one potentially negative (Healthcare relative to the broad market). The potential bottom in the XLV/SPY ratio looks like less of a potential one week later (positive for the markets) as the would-be low got bent out of shape, and Semi and shorter-term Tech leadership are still intact.

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Upcoming Month to Remember (by Xerxes)

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Note from Tim: be sure to check out the prior post, which has a very important announcement. I did not want to get in the way of Xerxes’ contribution, below, so on with the show……….

While there has been no shortage of astonishing and frustrating market action in the past 12 months in both directions, I am of the mind that this market is ready to break down. As with most things in Technical Analysis, the power of 20/20 hindsight is our biggest strength (ironically). Now that we see how we got to where we are at, we can make an assumption as to the future path. From what I have seen, the next month’s actions should make a deterministic move in either direction.

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Rallying From Major Support

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We saw the breakdown on SPX that I was warning about on my last post, and so far SPX is finding support in the 4000 area, which is the obvious support level as there is an intersection of decent support levels here. There are hourly buy signals fixed overnight on all of the six equity index futures I track on a daily basis and, subject to FOMC today, the pressure to deliver a rally today is strong.

The only support level not yet quite tested is rising wedge support from the 2022 low, and I’m wondering whether that, currently in the 3965 area, might need a test before the rally that we should see here. If we do see a test of that trendline and it holds, then that will open wedge resistance, currently in the 4240 area, as a possible target.

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