Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rallying From Major Support

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We saw the breakdown on SPX that I was warning about on my last post, and so far SPX is finding support in the 4000 area, which is the obvious support level as there is an intersection of decent support levels here. There are hourly buy signals fixed overnight on all of the six equity index futures I track on a daily basis and, subject to FOMC today, the pressure to deliver a rally today is strong.

The only support level not yet quite tested is rising wedge support from the 2022 low, and I’m wondering whether that, currently in the 3965 area, might need a test before the rally that we should see here. If we do see a test of that trendline and it holds, then that will open wedge resistance, currently in the 4240 area, as a possible target.

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Very Important Resistance Area Here

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The possible H&S I was looking at on Friday morning didn’t form and the move to retest the prior high has done some interesting technical damage to the bear case, so I wanted to have a look at that this morning.

The SPX hourly chart below shows the break over declining resistance from the all time high, which held perfectly at the December highs and established a high quality three touch resistance trendline.

On the bigger picture there is also a decent case that a falling wedge has formed from the all time high on SPX that could be a bull flag. That flag wedge would have underthrown bullishly at the October low and this might therefore be the start of a break up towards a possible retest of the all time high.

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