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The rally from the first backtest of 3900 was over too fast to set up any possible possible divergence on the daily RSIs. That means that there are no possible daily RSI buy signals brewing on the US equity indices, and that is a strike in favor of the bears.
The inflection point here remains the same. The rally could resume from the important support in the 3900 area, or that area could fail into a retest of the 2022 lows.
(more…)GDX and GDXJ are bouncing nicely today, but my (very amateurish) view of the volume profile suggests that there’s an enormous wall of sellers that’ll hold back the price from advancing too much.
The H&S patterns from the rally highs that I was looking at a week ago all made their target areas yesterday and SPX is now testing important support at 3900. This area was significant on the way up in early 2021, and was then key support in May, resistance in June, and was broken as resistance and backtested as support in July. Bulls need to hold this area if they want to go higher, and bears need to break it hard if they want to retest the 2022 low at 3636.87 and go lower.
(more…)In my post on Friday I was looking for a fail at the backtest of the 4200 SPX area, and a break down from the H&S patterns forming on the US equity indices and we saw that fail and all the H&S patterns broke down. None of those have yet made target.
SPX has broken back below the 45dma, now at 4030.05, so the reversion to the mean move has been completed and I won’t be posting this chart again for a while.
(more…)Moving Averages are an interesting indicator to me because they can be so important in some cases and so innocuous in others. Much like other technical indicators, they need to be considered in context. When you are using them to explain a story they can be very powerful. Usually stocks tend to stay on one side of a moving average. Above the average = bullish, below the average = bearish.
A crossover then usually switches the stocks tendency from bullish to bearish and vice versa. Also, like other indicators, the longer term timeframe we are looking at the more powerful the moves tend to be, hence why a crossover on an hourly chart means much less than a crossover on a monthly chart. There have been a few good examples lately of how they can be of use for entries and exits, setting stops or limit orders, etc.
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