Well for one thing, gold has often experienced strength during periods when long-term yields have risen. The yellow bars on the 2 lower panels of the chart below show that. Yet on this cycle, gold has gone down as long-term yields have risen. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Keeping It Real
I have been watching two trendlines with particular interest over the last few days, and have stated repeatedly here that a break up on either should confirm the bull case for a strong run up on equities into next year. Both have broken up in the last two days, and I am leaning very strongly here towards this bull scenario. I wrote up part of that scenario back on 30th June this year, when I gave a target in the 1965 area for the rising wedge from the 2011 low that had recently broken up and you can see that post here. (more…)
Bear Case Almost Dead
There has been a lot of talk in recent days about how the bear case is dead, and how equities will rise considerably further from here, and how this bull market can go on for years longer. I think that talk has a decent technical foundation, and am planning a post once 1750 SPX is decisively broken talking about the technical case for seeing SPX reach the 1950 area next Spring, and the 2450 area sometime in 2016/7. Until that time however …… (more…)
At The Weekly Upper Band
SPX traded above the daily upper bollinger band all day on Friday and closed eight points above it. A move like this often runs to three days trading above the upper band and if that’s the case today then I would expect the upper band to close in the 1742-5 area, and for SPX to close no more than ten points above the upper band. What is also worth noting on this daily chart though is that SPX tested rising wedge resistance from the June low on Friday, and regardless of whether this breaks later, we may well see a retracement from this test here. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Kicking the Can
The scale of the Republican capitulation yesterday was impressive and the Democrats got their ninety day extension without any real concessions. Frankly I was surprised and clearly the Democrat strategy of hanging tough on the negotiations was realistic after all. There wasn’t much reaction on the equity futures market and ES is down four points or so at the time of writing since the bill passed. (more…)
