There’s probably nothing more important to the future survival of equity bears (Earth’s most precious resource and by far its most endangered species) than for interest rates to push higher. I am therefore watching ZB closely, day to day. The worse ZB gets, the better my prospects become. So far, it is adhering nicely to a sawtooth downslope. May it continue to do so! Breaking above 133.31 would damage this pattern. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Falling Wedge on ES
I’m expecting to see a short term high soon, and that might turn out to be a very significant high that will last months. Generally before a significant high we would see equities test the water, as it were, with a first decline before the main high. I suspect strongly that is what we are seeing at the moment, so I’m expecting this move to have limited further downside and to be followed by (probably marginal) new SPX highs in the near future. (more…)
Retesting the Highs
Since I wrote the commentary on my SPX charts below saying that a decent double-top setup was in place, but that I was nonetheless expecting new highs, the ECB has cut interest rates and ES has made new all-time highs. Dow already made new highs yesterday and I’m expecting SPX should make a new high in trading hours today. Any high made this week is likely to be within the acceptable double-top zone for SPX to peak near here. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
IHS Pattern on RUT
I had a couple of questions yesterday about the ‘IHS’ that had formed on the ES chart. I hadn’t been showing this and that’s because it isn’t actually a valid IHS. Any H&S pattern must be a reversal pattern by definition, and if an H&S pattern occupies a large majority of the trend leading into it then it isn’t a reversal pattern. If it isn’t a reversal pattern then the historical stats for the performance of these patterns do not apply. I see these form regularly though and while they break the neckline less often they do often make the ‘target’ after doing so. FWIW the ‘target’ on this one would be in the 1781 area and it has already broken over the neckline at 1764. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Bears Not Out Of The Woods
Wednesday’s bearish engulfing daily candlestick confirmed yesterday with a lower intraday low and lower close. I’d have been happier with a more definitive trend day downwards but the last two days have been a decent start on the expected retracement. SPY daily chart: (more…)
