Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The SPX Broadening Ascending Wedge

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Most days recently I’ve been posting a rising channel from the 1536 low, and I posted on twitter yesterday that channel resistance was hit at 1684.6 and there was leeway for a push through to 1685/6. I was frankly irritated when SPX then reached 1687.18, which was a clear breach of my channel resistance trendline.

I have commented before though that sometimes we see a pinocchio through a smaller pattern or channel trendline to reach a target trendline on a larger pattern, and with that high yesterday the pattern from the November low has finally been clarified. That pattern is a perfect broadening ascending wedge, and you can see that on the SPX 60min chart below: (more…)

Occam’s Razor

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I was expecting yesterday’s post to be a bit controversial and it was. However the job of the analyst is to see the evidence, assess it, and analyze the relevant data to reach a conclusion. This might be described as the SAA method. If you reverse this to start with your conclusion, you risk making an AAS out of yourself. 🙂

Occam’s Razor is the proposition that when there are a number of competing hypotheses to solve a problem, then the simplest hypothesis is likely to be the correct one. In essence this is a mathematical expression of the truism that if something looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and acts like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. (more…)

US Dollar and Bonds

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SPX recovered to test the highs on Friday and closed six points below the weekly upper bollinger band at 1639. It’s very rare to see a significant break above the weekly upper bollinger band, and that can only rise at about ten points per week, so we are unlikely to see any powerful further drives up without some consolidation or retracement first. Any immediate weekly rises from this level will be incremental: (more…)