Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
A Rotten AAPL? (by Springheel Jack)
I'm doing an all equities and bonds edition today as there are some interesting things I'd like to look at. I'll start with the standard charts so on the SPX daily chart. SPX tried to break up from the middle bollinger band yesterday but returned to close there again. Of the three instances in the last year where SPX broke below the middle bollinger band and then recovered over it, the last setup that looks a lot like this was in June, and that resolved upwards. A small sample though:
Quarter 4 Begins (by Springheel Jack)
SPX closed on the middle bollinger band on the daily chart on Friday, with the body of the candle above the band. That looks cautiously bullish if SPX can break up from the band today, with ideally no part of the candle touching the middle bollinger band:
Bollinger Band Moves (by Springheel Jack)
SPX closed back above the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and that was unexpected and rare. Generally speaking on a cross significantly above or below the middle bollinger band on the SPX daily chart, there is then a move to the next primary support or resistance level, which is either the next bollinger band, or a major moving average (the 50, 100 or 200 DMA) lying between the middle and far bollinger band in the direction of the break. I can see about twenty instances of that happening in the last year, and a further ten or so when the middle bollinger band was good support or resistance for continuation.
Deja Vu So Far (by Springheel Jack)
I was reading a writeup from a fairly well known analyst yesterday stating confidently that QE announcements are followed by bull runs of 10% to 15% in the following four to six weeks. He shall remain nameless, but the evidence doesn't really back up that view. It's true that when QE1 was announced in November 2008 there was a rally from the 800 area to the January high at 943.85 but there's a very good argument that was coincidental, as SPX was already rallying from a very oversold short term double bottom at 741.02 into the January 2009 high before the final bear market decline into the March 2009 low. The picture from the announcement of QE2 looked rather different.
