Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Sky Is Falling…And So Will Treasuries (by phantomcapital)

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Here is a new, novel, and different trade idea:  short treasuries.  Wait, people have been saying that interest rates have to eventually go up for the last several years?  And the most powerful financial force on the planet, the Fed, has been pinning interest rates as low as possible?  Hmm, well in that case SHORT TREASURIES.

Every great trade has a technical and fundamental backing but it also has a great story for why now.  United States Treasuries have finally painted a beautiful picture for why they will fall and interest rates will rise. 

$TNX Daily

First, let us look at the Fed.  The Fed can do one of two things.  They will continue an endless stream of quantitative easing thus interest rates will stay where they are now.  Or they slow down their constant manipulation and interest rates not only rise but rip back to historical norms.  Heads, I win, tails, its a tie.

$TYX Daily

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Equities Looking Weak Here (by Springheel Jack)

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I posted a possible bear flag on the ES 15min on Friday morning. It broke down during the day and has played out to within a couple of points of the flag target overnight. We might see a bounce here with some positive RSI divergence on the oversold 5 & 15min charts. If we see that then I have short term declining resistance in the 1367.50 area and that would be the initial target:

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April Opex Friday (by Springheel Jack)

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The possible bear flag on the SPX 15min broke down yesterday, but without much conviction, and with a decent recovery late in the day. There was no positive divergence on the 15min RSI, but if the rally sees the RSI move over the 50 line today then I would stop looking for that divergence as we don't always see it. As with the last move up, no clear trendline formed so it's hard to see any trendline resistance below the 1388 area:

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