Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bullish Overnight (by Springheel Jack)

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I was expecting consolidation yesterday followed by continuation down today, but that's not what the charts are suggesting this morning. Dow closed up yesterday as the stats suggested, but Nasdaq had a strong continuation down day. The support trendline of the NQ declining channel was hit and overnight there was a slightly lower low on positive RSI divergence. This is a bullish setup short term and suggests a move to test channel resistance in the 2725 area, with some shorter term declining resistance in the 2690 area

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Looking Down (by Springheel Jack)

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The stats for today are strong as I noted in my weekend post which you can see here. Against that the technical picture looks unambiguously bearish, and I'm expecting more downside this week, though not necessarily today. I'll repost the SPX chart I posted at the weekend below, and that is the SPX 15min chart showing the rally last week as a bear flag with a target at 1312. I was asked at the weekend where I found the stat that 47% of such breakdowns could be expected to reach target, and that was from Bulkowski's site and the relevant page is here:

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Possible IHS Forming (by Springheel Jack)

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I posted a chart on twitter late yesterday which has had over 1500 hits so far, and it's the most important chart to look at today. That chart is the SPX 15min chart which is showing the possible IHS that may be forming at the 1387.5 area neckline with a target on the 1417 area. Yesterday was a trend day, and that's generally followed by a consolidation day, and that consolidation may now form a right shoulder on this pattern. If that forms and the neckline breaks up, then historically these IHSes on SPX generally make the target. I've marked in a possible path within the nice little rising channel that has formed from the low. 

There are two other things to note from this chart however. The first is that the high yesterday hit the strong resistance area that I was highlighting yesterday morning, and that area is obviously still strong resistance. The second is that there was negative RSI divergence from overbought on the ES 15min chart at the close yesterday. I mentioned yesterday morning that if the downtrend was to continue then this rally would most likely fail the next time we saw this. I'll be watching that rising channel support on the SPX 15min today:

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Recently Bearish Thursday (by Springheel Jack)

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There are three main options that I'm looking at on SPX over the next few days and today is the key day for the first option:

1. We see a failure at immediate declining resistance (best seen on 15min chart) under the lower bollinger band and the daily 50 SMA as well, so this is a strong resistance area. This option sees an immediate continuation of the downtrend with a likely low made in 2 to 4 days. 

2. SPX breaks over this very steep declining resistance and heads towards the middle bollinger band and potential channel resistance in the 1400 area. Depending on the speed of the rally we may well see failure at resistance just over 1390 (1387 ES area) before the downtrend resumes. 

3. SPX breaks over that resistance, the middle bollinger band, and potential channel resistance to test the highs and if broken, then moves up to test the 1442 SPX pivot level. 

For the last two options I'll be watching the 15min RSI for negative divergence from overbought. If we see that then that would be a strong short signal. If that then failed to deliver a new low I'd be expecting new highs soon. Here's how that looks on the SPX daily chart:

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