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I don’t know how long it will last, but yesterday was recognisably the second day of a band ride on the SPX daily upper band. ES looks as though SPX should open near the upper band,so whichever way it goes, this should be a third day for that band ride. There may be no more than that as quite a few band rides fail after the third day. If SPX has a strong day then I’d expect the upper band to close in the 1981-3 range today. SPX daily chart:
The first trading day of the third quarter is historically bullish. The Stock Trader’s Almanac has this as down as 76.2% bullish on Dow and 81% bullish on SPX. Looking back over the last ten years the points to note are:
– Eight green closes and two red closes
– The two red closes were -3 (2010) and -12 (2004)
– The eight green closes were +3, +3, +4, +5, +8, +10, +16, +19
– The second day of Q3 leans bearish
I’m leaning bullish today and looking for a retest of the 1968 SPX high from last week. If strong primary resistance overhead is respected there is still headroom to run up as high as the SPX daily upper band, currently at 1972. SPX daily chart: (more…)
SPX tested the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and as with Wednesday, there was then a sustained rally to a lower high (so far). The SPX daily middle band is obviously a significant support level, but there should be more downside coming if the bears can put a whole day together. SPX daily chart:
I’m just going to keep driving this point home: interest rates are heading the exact opposite direction people think they are headed. That is, lower. The breakdown continues:
I’ve had quite a few new readers in the last few months and it struck me yesterday from a couple of comments that at least some of these were obviously still hazy on the distinction between technical analysis and fortune telling. It can be an easy mistake to confuse the first with the second, as a good analyst can sometimes make calls that seem almost supernatural. Some of my past calls have been amazingly and rapidly accurate, and some offhand examples I’d pick would be: (more…)
