Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Great Brain Robbery

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The decline yesterday was dramatic, but not sufficiently dramatic in my view that we should now assume that the spring high was made on Tuesday. Bears will need to follow through and close below 1850 SPX before that assumption can reasonably be made.

I’m just looking at SPX and bonds today but I will just mention that the low on RUT yesterday was at 1082.53, still in the lower range I gave yesterday morning for a possible bullish recovery, and that NDX didn’t break rising support from 3414, though it came very close to testing it. There is a strong argument that this decline has limited the scope for further upside however, and if we should see a strong recovery from yesterday’s lows then I would mention that something often seen at significant highs is a sharp spike down before the main slightly higher high. This is a common way to set up a double top. (more…)

Who Knew?

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SPX held the SPX 1min rising channel for a while yesterday, but then it broke and we have been seeing a more substantial retracement. Could the Spring high now be in? Yes, but we’re really going to need to see some more evidence before assuming that, and that’s what I’ll be looking at today.

There’s not much to say on the NDX chart other than to reiterate that a failure at this week’s high would be an ideal right shoulder high on the very large H&S that has been forming there. I’ll therefore start with RUT where RUT is now back within the falling channel that broke up on Monday. That situation isn’t at panic stations yet and a low near yesterday’s close in the 1100 area would be an ideal right shoulder low on a possible IHS, and a low in the 1080-90 would make a possible second low on a possible larger double-bottom. Under there the bullish options get much thinner, but until then the bullish scenario is still in play. RUT 60min chart: (more…)

Games with Frontiers

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‘A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing’
Neville Chamberlain, PM of Great Britain, talking about Czechoslovakia in 1938

Back in 1963 there was an significant milestone in the transition to modern warfare when the the name of the British Ministry of War was changed to the Ministry of Defence. Many other euphemisms about war have been used since then with ‘police actions’, ‘military advisers’ and many others becoming common.

At the same time the absurd situation arose, as the age of empires passed away and the British Empire was dismantled, that the only two remaining true empires, based in Russia and China, posed as anti-imperial powers, with the pejorative description ‘imperialist’ mainly applied by them to Western Powers who had already lost or given away their foreign territories. (more…)

TGI Friday

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A key target for bulls yesterday was to break up from the falling megaphone on NDX, and they did that. As long as NDX can hold above broken megaphone resistance that is a bullish break with a target back at the 3717.36 high. If NDX breaks back below broken megaphone support then that would raise a possibility that this break may be a bearish overthrow with an ultimate target in the 3000-3100 area, so I’ll be watching that trendline carefully. NDX 60min chart:

140502 NDX 60min Falling Megaphone Broken Up

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